THE INTELLIGENCE LAYER.
FOR PREDICTION MARKETS.
Actionable trading signals for Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Real-time arbitrage detection, deep market analysis, and execution-ready insights. All from one API.
THE PROBLEM.
Prediction markets are full of mispriced events, but finding them requires deep research across multiple platforms, plus speed to act before the edge disappears.
Manual research across prediction markets takes hours per event
Cross-platform price gaps close before you can act on them
No systematic way to identify mispriced odds at scale
Market-moving events happen 24/7 and you can't watch everything
THE SOLUTION.
An intelligence platform that continuously monitors, analyzes, and surfaces opportunities across prediction markets so you can focus on execution.
Get actionable trading signals on any market in under 60 seconds
Instant alerts when cross-platform spreads exceed your threshold
Systematic edge detection surfaces mispriced odds across every category
Always-on monitoring means you never miss a market-moving event
ECOSYSTEM.
Access prediction market intelligence however you build.
Discord
Community + Alerts
Real-time market alerts, whale trade signals, and discussion threads across every category.
For Traders
OpenClaw Skill
rekko on ClawHub
Prediction market intelligence as a skill for AI agents. Plug Rekko into your agentic workflows.
For AI Agents
REST APIs
Direct + RapidAPI
Structured prediction market analysis, odds scoring, and edge detection via REST endpoints. Self-service API keys.
For Developers
Documentation
Docs + GitHub
Integration guides, API reference, and open-source tooling for prediction market developers.
For Developers
CAPABILITIES.
DEEP MARKET ANALYSIS
Structured intelligence on any prediction market event. Every signal comes with confidence scoring, evidence-based reasoning, and a clear recommendation.
CROSS-PLATFORM ARBITRAGE
Instant detection of price divergences across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Get alerted when spreads exceed your threshold, before the gap closes.
DEVELOPER API
Market data, trading signals, arbitrage alerts, and portfolio tools. All via REST. Built for trading bots, dashboards, and agentic workflows.
TRADING INTELLIGENCE
Position sizing, portfolio tracking, bankroll management, and performance analytics. Paper trade to validate strategies, then go live when ready.
ALWAYS-ON MONITORING
Continuous market surveillance with configurable alert thresholds. Large trade detection and automatic opportunity scoring across every category.
PLATFORMS.
First-class integration with the largest prediction market platforms. More on the way.
Kalshi
Connected- Real-time market data
- Price change alerts
- Volume & open interest tracking
- Direct trade execution
Polymarket
Connected- Real-time market data
- Cross-platform arbitrage
- Historical price analysis
- Portfolio tracking
Robinhood
Connected- Event contract markets
- Real-time pricing data
- Cross-platform arbitrage
- Market trend analysis
Coinbase
Connected- CFTC-regulated prediction markets
- Real-time pricing data
- Cross-platform arbitrage
- Coinbase app integration
LATEST ANALYSIS.
Recent AI-powered prediction market analyses with probability estimates, confidence scoring, and trading signals.
US government shutdown lasting at least 60 days (Feb 7, 2026 - Dec 31, 2026)
The resolution criteria for this market has been definitively met as of April 15, 2026 (yesterday). The Department of Homeland Security partial shutdown began on February 14, 2026, and reached the 60-day threshold on April 15—within the specified Feb 7-Dec 31, 2026 timeframe. This is confirmed by official DHS government sources and represents the longest partial government shutdown in U.S. history. Our estimated probability is 100% (1.0), aligned with the market's 99.9% pricing. The 0.1% gap from perfect certainty reflects market microstructure constraints (bid-ask spreads, technical pricing floors) rather than genuine uncertainty—this is a retrospective confirmation of historical fact, not a prediction. The market is correctly priced with no exploitable edge.
Will Hunter Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
The market prices Hunter Biden winning the 2028 Democratic nomination at 0.15% (0.0015), while my analysis estimates approximately 0.05% probability. Both figures reflect near-impossibility. Most critically, yesterday (April 15, 2026) Hunter Biden explicitly endorsed other Democrats—calling Gavin Newsom the "greatest warrior" and naming Shapiro, Beshear, and Mamdani as potential standard-bearers—while making zero mention of personal political ambitions. He currently lives overseas in South Africa, has never held elected office, possesses no campaign infrastructure (no FEC filings, no exploratory committee, no staff), and faces substantial reputational challenges (2024 presidential pardon, 2025 disbarment). Meanwhile, established Democratic candidates are already campaigning with double-digit polling: Newsom (26-30% on Kalshi), Buttigieg (19% in NH), and others. The historical base rate for a non-politician presidential family member winning a major party nomination in the modern era is effectively zero. The market is rationally priced and well-calibrated to available evidence.
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?
The market prices a 7.85% probability that Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026 (106 days away), while my analysis estimates 6.5% (range: 3.5-8.5%, confidence: 0.62). The market appears modestly overpriced by 1-2 percentage points, but this falls within reasonable uncertainty bounds. Both assessments primarily reflect health/mortality risk rather than political removal scenarios. Trump, at 79 years old during an acute military crisis with Iran (described by the IEA as the "most severe oil supply shock in history"), faces elevated stress-related health risks beyond normal actuarial tables (~0.7% base rate for 106 days). However, recent public appearances (April 13), White House denials of health rumors, and structural political realities (Republican trifecta makes impeachment/25th Amendment invocation virtually impossible) suggest the market may be overreacting to unverified speculation. The key uncertainty is information asymmetry: persistent Walter Reed rumors from April 4 could reflect insider knowledge not captured in public data, or could be unfounded conspiracy theories. Trump's April 15 statement that the Iran war is "very close to over" suggests potential near-term stress reduction if peace is achieved by the scheduled King Charles III visit on April 27.
Will Matt Mahan win the 2026 California Governor election?
The market prices Matt Mahan at 10.5% to win the California governorship, but our analysis estimates his true probability at approximately 3% - suggesting the market is overvaluing his chances by roughly 7.5 percentage points. While Mahan has recently secured significant Silicon Valley backing ($2M+ from billionaires like Caruso and Hastings) and benefited from frontrunner Eric Swalwell's dropout, these positive developments are overwhelmed by structural constraints: he polls under 5% with only 47 days until the June 2 primary, his campaign experienced severe staff upheaval as of April 15, and mail ballots are dropping imminently. Most critically, since California adopted its top-two primary system in 2012, zero candidates have advanced from sub-5% April polling to a top-two finish in June, and candidates in similar positions historically win less than 2% of the time. The market appears to be overweighting late financial firepower while underweighting the compressed timeline, operational dysfunction, and the double-hurdle requirement of first making the top two (against fragmented Democratic and consolidated Republican fields) and then winning the November general election. The lack of post-Swalwell polling data creates uncertainty, but available evidence suggests the current 10.5% market price substantially overstates Mahan's realistic chances.
PRICING.
Transparent, usage-based pricing. Start free, upgrade to Pro for volume discounts, or pay per call via x402.
LISTING
DataRaw market data and price history
- Market listings & metadata
- Price history & OHLCV
- Volume & open interest
- Platform status
INSIGHT
IntelligenceAI-generated analysis and screening
- Analysis summaries
- Market screening & ranking
- Resolution intelligence
- Category breakdowns
- Edge detection
STRATEGY
SignalsTrading signals with execution guidance
- BUY / SELL / NO_TRADE signals
- Position sizing recommendations
- Portfolio strategy
- Execution guidance
- Trade reports
DEEP
AdvancedCross-platform arbitrage and correlation
- Arbitrage scanning
- Live spread detection
- Correlation analysis
- Webhook subscriptions
FAQ.
Common questions about prediction market trading, our API, and how rekko.ai works.
What is prediction market trading?
Prediction market trading involves buying and selling contracts on the outcomes of real-world events: elections, economic data, sports, weather, and more. Platforms like Kalshi (CFTC-regulated), Polymarket (crypto-native), Robinhood, and Coinbase offer yes/no contracts priced between $0 and $1. If you buy a YES contract at $0.65 and the event happens, you receive $1.00, a 54% return. rekko.ai provides the intelligence layer that helps traders identify mispriced contracts and act before the edge disappears.
How do prediction market bots use the rekko.ai API?
Trading bots call rekko.ai's REST API to get structured signals (BUY, SELL, or NO_TRADE) with confidence scores, position sizing, and execution guidance. A typical bot flow: poll the LISTING tier for market data, request STRATEGY-tier signals for actionable trades, and use DEEP-tier arbitrage scanning to find cross-platform price gaps. The API returns machine-readable JSON, so bots can parse and execute without human intervention.
What prediction market platforms does rekko.ai support?
rekko.ai currently connects to Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Cross-platform arbitrage detection runs continuously across all platforms, alerting you when the same event is priced differently on different platforms. PredictIt integration is planned for Q4 2026.
How does the prediction market API pricing work?
rekko.ai uses transparent, per-call pricing across four tiers: LISTING ($0.01/call) for raw market data, INSIGHT ($0.10/call) for AI-generated analysis and screening, STRATEGY ($2.00/call) for trading signals with position sizing, and DEEP ($5.00/call) for cross-platform arbitrage and correlation analysis. Start with 100 free LISTING calls and 10 free INSIGHT calls, or upgrade to Pro ($49/mo) for volume discounts.
Can I build a prediction market trading bot with rekko.ai?
Yes. Sign up for a free API key, then use the 27 REST + MCP endpoints to power your bot. The STRATEGY tier returns execution-ready signals (BUY/SELL/NO_TRADE) with Kelly-criterion position sizing and confidence scores. Pair that with the LISTING tier for real-time market data and the DEEP tier for arbitrage opportunities. The API is also available on RapidAPI if you prefer managed billing.
How does rekko.ai detect prediction market arbitrage?
rekko.ai continuously monitors the same events across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. When the price of an equivalent contract diverges beyond a configurable threshold (default 2%), the DEEP tier flags it as an arbitrage opportunity with the exact spread, suggested position sizes, and estimated profit after fees. Webhook subscriptions can push alerts to your bot in real time.
Is prediction market trading legal?
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and is legal for US residents. Polymarket operates on crypto rails and is available internationally. Robinhood offers event contracts through its existing brokerage platform. Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction, so check your local laws. rekko.ai provides market intelligence and educational content, not financial advice.
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