THE INTELLIGENCE LAYER.
FOR PREDICTION MARKETS.
Actionable trading signals for Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Real-time arbitrage detection, deep market analysis, and execution-ready insights. All from one API.
THE PROBLEM.
Prediction markets are full of mispriced events, but finding them requires deep research across multiple platforms, plus speed to act before the edge disappears.
Manual research across prediction markets takes hours per event
Cross-platform price gaps close before you can act on them
No systematic way to identify mispriced odds at scale
Market-moving events happen 24/7 and you can't watch everything
THE SOLUTION.
An intelligence platform that continuously monitors, analyzes, and surfaces opportunities across prediction markets so you can focus on execution.
Get actionable trading signals on any market in under 60 seconds
Instant alerts when cross-platform spreads exceed your threshold
Systematic edge detection surfaces mispriced odds across every category
Always-on monitoring means you never miss a market-moving event
ECOSYSTEM.
Access prediction market intelligence however you build.
Discord
Community + Alerts
Real-time market alerts, whale trade signals, and discussion threads across every category.
For Traders
OpenClaw Skill
rekko on ClawHub
Prediction market intelligence as a skill for AI agents. Plug Rekko into your agentic workflows.
For AI Agents
REST APIs
Direct + RapidAPI
Structured prediction market analysis, odds scoring, and edge detection via REST endpoints. Self-service API keys.
For Developers
Documentation
Docs + GitHub
Integration guides, API reference, and open-source tooling for prediction market developers.
For Developers
CAPABILITIES.
DEEP MARKET ANALYSIS
Structured intelligence on any prediction market event. Every signal comes with confidence scoring, evidence-based reasoning, and a clear recommendation.
CROSS-PLATFORM ARBITRAGE
Instant detection of price divergences across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Get alerted when spreads exceed your threshold, before the gap closes.
DEVELOPER API
Market data, trading signals, arbitrage alerts, and portfolio tools. All via REST. Built for trading bots, dashboards, and agentic workflows.
TRADING INTELLIGENCE
Position sizing, portfolio tracking, bankroll management, and performance analytics. Paper trade to validate strategies, then go live when ready.
ALWAYS-ON MONITORING
Continuous market surveillance with configurable alert thresholds. Large trade detection and automatic opportunity scoring across every category.
PLATFORMS.
First-class integration with the largest prediction market platforms. More on the way.
Kalshi
Connected- Real-time market data
- Price change alerts
- Volume & open interest tracking
- Direct trade execution
Polymarket
Connected- Real-time market data
- Cross-platform arbitrage
- Historical price analysis
- Portfolio tracking
Robinhood
Connected- Event contract markets
- Real-time pricing data
- Cross-platform arbitrage
- Market trend analysis
Coinbase
Connected- CFTC-regulated prediction markets
- Real-time pricing data
- Cross-platform arbitrage
- Coinbase app integration
LATEST ANALYSIS.
Recent AI-powered prediction market analyses with probability estimates, confidence scoring, and trading signals.
Will Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
The market prices Ron DeSantis at 4.6% to win the 2028 Republican nomination, while my analysis estimates his probability at approximately 3.5%. As of June 13, 2026, DeSantis faces severe structural disadvantages: he polls at only 5-9% among likely GOP primary voters, his Florida governorship ends in January 2027 (leaving him without office for 12 months before the Iowa caucuses), and he must compete against sitting VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio—both of whom dominate prediction markets at 47-53%. Historical precedent strongly favors sitting vice presidents, who win their party's nomination approximately 60% of the time when they run, while former governors without current office facing sitting VPs succeed less than 15% of the time. DeSantis has not formally announced a 2028 bid and has given only non-committal statements ("we'll see what happens"). The most likely scenario (89% probability) is that he doesn't run in 2028, recognizing these structural barriers and instead positioning for a potential 2032 campaign. The market appears to slightly overprice his chances, likely due to name recognition from the 2024 cycle creating availability bias and underweighting the severe handicap of losing his gubernatorial platform. This represents a modest bearish edge of 1-1.5 percentage points, though uncertainty remains high given the 2.5-year time horizon.
Jon Ossoff to win 2028 U.S. Presidential Election
The market prices Jon Ossoff to win the 2028 Presidential Election at 6.15%, but my analysis suggests fair value is approximately 3.5%—indicating the market is overpriced by roughly 76%. This premium appears driven by recency bias from a high-profile NYT op-ed published just three days ago (June 10, 2026) and retail speculation on a compelling "next Obama" narrative. The path to victory requires navigating three sequential hurdles: winning his November 2026 Senate re-election in Georgia (~78% likely), securing the 2028 Democratic nomination (~6% likely in a crowded field trailing governors like Newsom), and winning the general election (~52% assuming generic conditions). The compounded base probability is only 2.4%, which I adjust to 3.5% accounting for conditional correlations (a commanding Senate victory would boost nomination chances). Critically, historical base rates strongly disfavor this outcome—only one first-term Senator (Obama 2008) has won the presidency in modern history, representing an extremely rare path. The market appears to be overweighting recent media momentum while underweighting the structural challenges of Ossoff's profile (limited executive experience, purple-state base, crowded Democratic field). The November 2026 Senate result in five months represents the key near-term catalyst that will either validate or deflate current pricing.
Trump announces US blockade of Strait of Hormuz lifted by June 12, 2026
This market asks whether President Trump announced a lifting of the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Today is June 13, 2026—the deadline has already passed. My estimated probability is 0.0% (certainty of NO resolution) versus the market's 0.55% implied probability. The factual record is unambiguous: U.S. Central Command confirmed on June 12 that "U.S. forces continue to strictly enforce the blockade" with 139 ships redirected and 9 disabled since April. While Trump made statements on May 29 mentioning the blockade "will now be lifted," these were explicitly conditional on Iranian demands that were immediately rejected, and a May 31 deadline market established precedent that such conditional statements don't qualify. On June 11, Trump announced an imminent "great settlement," but the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding remained unsigned by deadline, with Iran's Foreign Ministry confirming no final decision was reached. No definitive, unconditional announcement meeting the resolution criteria was made by any qualifying source before the deadline. The market is correctly priced at near-zero probability and will resolve NO based on the factual record.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026
The market is pricing a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal at 16.15% probability by the June 15, 2026 deadline (just 48 hours away), but this represents a fundamental misunderstanding of what is being negotiated. All credible sources from June 12-13 confirm that negotiations involve a 60-day temporary Memorandum of Understanding—explicitly described as a bridge to future talks, not a permanent peace treaty. The resolution criteria explicitly exclude "temporary agreements or those without definitive commitment to end hostilities," creating a definitional mismatch that disqualifies even a successfully signed MOU. As of today, negotiations remain 80-85% complete with internal Iranian consensus not yet achieved, Trump publicly rejecting Iranian leaked terms yesterday, and ongoing military hostilities (drone attacks documented June 12). Converting an incomplete temporary ceasefire draft into a fully signed, ratified permanent peace treaty within 48 hours has zero historical precedent between adversarial nations. My estimated probability is 0.5%—accounting only for extreme black swan scenarios or resolution ambiguity—representing a ~32x overpricing by the market that appears to conflate "any deal" with "permanent peace deal."
PRICING.
Transparent, usage-based pricing. Start free, upgrade to Pro for volume discounts, or pay per call via x402.
LISTING
DataRaw market data and price history
- Market listings & metadata
- Price history & OHLCV
- Volume & open interest
- Platform status
INSIGHT
IntelligenceAI-generated analysis and screening
- Analysis summaries
- Market screening & ranking
- Resolution intelligence
- Category breakdowns
- Edge detection
STRATEGY
SignalsTrading signals with execution guidance
- BUY / SELL / NO_TRADE signals
- Position sizing recommendations
- Portfolio strategy
- Execution guidance
- Trade reports
DEEP
AdvancedCross-platform arbitrage and correlation
- Arbitrage scanning
- Live spread detection
- Correlation analysis
- Webhook subscriptions
FAQ.
Common questions about prediction market trading, our API, and how rekko.ai works.
What is prediction market trading?
Prediction market trading involves buying and selling contracts on the outcomes of real-world events: elections, economic data, sports, weather, and more. Platforms like Kalshi (CFTC-regulated), Polymarket (crypto-native), Robinhood, and Coinbase offer yes/no contracts priced between $0 and $1. If you buy a YES contract at $0.65 and the event happens, you receive $1.00, a 54% return. rekko.ai provides the intelligence layer that helps traders identify mispriced contracts and act before the edge disappears.
How do prediction market bots use the rekko.ai API?
Trading bots call rekko.ai's REST API to get structured signals (BUY, SELL, or NO_TRADE) with confidence scores, position sizing, and execution guidance. A typical bot flow: poll the LISTING tier for market data, request STRATEGY-tier signals for actionable trades, and use DEEP-tier arbitrage scanning to find cross-platform price gaps. The API returns machine-readable JSON, so bots can parse and execute without human intervention.
What prediction market platforms does rekko.ai support?
rekko.ai currently connects to Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Cross-platform arbitrage detection runs continuously across all platforms, alerting you when the same event is priced differently on different platforms. PredictIt integration is planned for Q4 2026.
How does the prediction market API pricing work?
rekko.ai uses transparent, per-call pricing across four tiers: LISTING ($0.01/call) for raw market data, INSIGHT ($0.10/call) for AI-generated analysis and screening, STRATEGY ($2.00/call) for trading signals with position sizing, and DEEP ($5.00/call) for cross-platform arbitrage and correlation analysis. Start with 100 free LISTING calls and 10 free INSIGHT calls, or upgrade to Pro ($49/mo) for volume discounts.
Can I build a prediction market trading bot with rekko.ai?
Yes. Sign up for a free API key, then use the 27 REST + MCP endpoints to power your bot. The STRATEGY tier returns execution-ready signals (BUY/SELL/NO_TRADE) with Kelly-criterion position sizing and confidence scores. Pair that with the LISTING tier for real-time market data and the DEEP tier for arbitrage opportunities. The API is also available on RapidAPI if you prefer managed billing.
How does rekko.ai detect prediction market arbitrage?
rekko.ai continuously monitors the same events across Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Coinbase. When the price of an equivalent contract diverges beyond a configurable threshold (default 2%), the DEEP tier flags it as an arbitrage opportunity with the exact spread, suggested position sizes, and estimated profit after fees. Webhook subscriptions can push alerts to your bot in real time.
Is prediction market trading legal?
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and is legal for US residents. Polymarket operates on crypto rails and is available internationally. Robinhood offers event contracts through its existing brokerage platform. Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction, so check your local laws. rekko.ai provides market intelligence and educational content, not financial advice.
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