Bitcoin price on Oct 8, 2026?

CRITICAL TEMPORAL NOTE: This bet has already resolved as of today (October 9, 2026). The resolution occurred at 9 PM EDT on October 8, 2026. This is a post-resolution assessment.

Step-by-step analysis:

1. Resolution Status: The bet asked whether Bitcoin would be $81,800 or above at 9 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, using the BRTI 60-second average. We are now October 9, 2026, so the outcome is already determined—we are assessing what actually happened.

2. Price Action Timeline on October 8:

   • Intraday low: $80,926 at 12:58 PM EDT (below threshold)
   • Recovery to $81,433 by 2:23 PM EDT (still below threshold)
   • By 4:13 PM EDT: $81,842.31 (above threshold by $42)
   • Evening hours: traded in $81,600-$82,500 range

3. Critical Resolution Window (60 seconds before 9 PM EDT):

   • The BRTI average for the 60-second window is the definitive metric
   • Research states "strong indication the BRTI average held above $81,799.99 threshold"
   • Spot market data shows $81,600-$82,500 range during evening hours
   • The lower bound of evening range ($81,600) is slightly below threshold, but this appears to be the floor, not the average

4. Market Participants' View:

   • Pre-expiration odds: 74.5% probability of "Yes"
   • Traders had real-time visibility into price action and were confident but cautious
   • The 74.5% reflects uncertainty about whether the tight margin would hold through the exact 9 PM window

5. Catalysts Supporting Evening Price Stability:

   • President Trump's late October 8 statement ruling out Iran strikes before midterms
   • This geopolitical relief provided tailwind for Bitcoin recovery
   • Reduced risk premium supported price stability into evening

6. Why 95% probability instead of 100%:

   • While research "strongly indicates" resolution above threshold, the exact BRTI 60-second average is not explicitly confirmed
   • The $81,600 evening range lower bound is close to the $81,799.99 threshold
   • BRTI calculation methodology could have minor divergence from spot prices
   • High intraday volatility ($714M liquidations) means brief dips were possible

7. Evidence Weight:

   • Strong evidence: 4:13 PM price of $81,842, evening range $81,600-$82,500, research statement of "strong indication"
   • Supporting: geopolitical catalyst, market odds at 74.5%
   • Against: tight margin, extreme intraday volatility

Conclusion: The overwhelming evidence indicates the bet resolved to "Yes" (Bitcoin ≥ $81,800), but maintaining 5% uncertainty given the tight margin and lack of explicit BRTI confirmation in the research data.

NO EDGE AVAILABLE - BET HAS ALREADY RESOLVED

This is a retrospective analysis as of October 9, 2026. The bet resolved at 9 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, approximately 24 hours ago.

If this were a pre-resolution analysis: The market odds of 74.5% appear well-calibrated to the available information. My estimated probability of 95% is higher than market odds, suggesting potential edge for betting 'Yes', but this reflects:

1. Post-resolution information advantage (research compiled after the fact)
2. The research's explicit statement of 'strong indication' of resolution above threshold
3. Information that may not have been available to all market participants in real-time

Key takeaway: Market participants correctly identified high probability of 'Yes' resolution while appropriately hedging against the tight margin and high volatility. The 74.5% odds reflected rational uncertainty given the $42-200 buffer and extreme intraday swings. My higher estimate reflects additional post-facto evidence consolidation rather than a true edge opportunity.