kalshiMay 1, 20268d agoVirginia redistricting referendum: Will No win by 0-3% margin?
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?
Signal
SELL
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
100%
Summary.
This market asks whether Virginia's "No" vote on the April 21, 2026 redistricting amendment won by a margin between 0% and 3%. However, the election has already occurred (10 days ago as of today, May 1, 2026), and official results show "No" LOST with 48.31% versus "Yes" with 51.69%. The margin of victory for "No" is therefore -3.38%, which falls outside the required [0%, 3%) range. This is a deterministic outcome—the bet should resolve to "No" with 100% certainty. The current market-implied probability of 0.9% for "Yes" suggests near-complete pricing accuracy, though it should actually be exactly 0%. The remaining 0.9% likely reflects extreme tail risk (unprecedented court intervention changing vote totals) or market participants unaware of the finalized results. No credible scenario exists where this bet resolves to "Yes" given that negative margins mathematically cannot fall within the specified positive range.
Reasoning.
This is a deterministic resolution based on an event that already occurred 10 days ago on April 21, 2026.
TEMPORAL GROUNDING: Today is May 1, 2026. The Virginia redistricting amendment vote took place on April 21, 2026. Official results are publicly available.
ELECTION RESULTS:
- Yes: 1,604,276 votes (51.69%)
- No: 1,499,393 votes (48.31%)
- Yes won by 3.38 percentage points
MARGIN OF VICTORY CALCULATION: The "margin of victory for No" is the percentage by which No won or lost. Since No received 48.31% and Yes received 51.69%, No LOST by 3.38 percentage points. The margin of victory for No is therefore -3.38%.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA ANALYSIS: The bet asks: "Will the margin of victory for No be between 0% and 3%?"
- Range: [0%, 3%) - inclusive of lower bound (0%), exclusive of upper bound (3%)
- Actual No margin: -3.38%
- Does -3.38% fall within [0%, 3%)? NO
A negative margin means No lost the vote. The bet criteria requires No's margin to be between 0% and 3%, which would only occur if No won by 0-3% or tied. Since No lost, its margin is negative and falls outside the specified range.
COURT CHALLENGES: While the research mentions ongoing court challenges regarding certification, these relate to implementation of the redistricting, not to the vote count itself. No recount or vote counting disputes are mentioned that would affect the margin calculation.
MARKET ASSESSMENT: Current market odds of 0.009 (0.9%) are nearly correct but should actually be 0%. This is a resolved event with a deterministic outcome. The market should resolve to No (the bet loses) with 100% certainty.
Key Factors.
Election occurred April 21, 2026 - 10 days before current date (May 1, 2026)
Official results show No received 48.31% vs Yes 51.69%
No lost by 3.38 percentage points, yielding a margin of -3.38%
Bet requires No margin between 0% and 3% [inclusive lower, exclusive upper]
Negative margin (-3.38%) mathematically cannot fall within [0%, 3%)
No evidence of recounts, vote disputes, or challenges to the vote totals themselves
Court challenges relate to certification/implementation, not margin calculation
Scenarios.
Actual Outcome (Deterministic)
100%The election has already occurred. No lost by 3.38%, giving a margin of -3.38%, which is outside the 0% to 3% range. The bet resolves to No.
Trigger: Official results published April 21, 2026: Yes 51.69%, No 48.31%. No margin of -3.38% is negative and does not fall within [0%, 3%).
Recount/Court Reversal Changes Margin (Extremely Unlikely)
0%Court challenges or a recount somehow changes the vote totals enough to move the No margin from -3.38% into the 0% to 3% range. This would require flipping approximately 110,000 votes from Yes to No.
Trigger: No evidence in research of disputed vote counts, recount requests, or fraud allegations. Court challenges relate to certification/implementation, not vote counting. This scenario is mathematically possible but practically impossible given 10 days have passed with stable results.
Alternative Margin Interpretation (Not Applicable)
0%Some alternative interpretation of 'margin of victory for No' that would yield a different calculation. However, standard political terminology is unambiguous: margin of victory for a losing side is negative.
Trigger: No plausible alternative interpretation exists. When a side loses 48.31% to 51.69%, its margin is negative by any standard definition.
Risks.
Extreme tail risk: Unprecedented court ruling invalidates results and orders new election with different outcome (virtually impossible given no fraud allegations mentioned)
Misinterpretation of resolution criteria: However, the criteria are clear and unambiguous about the range [0%, 3%)
Data error: Official results could be misreported, but 10 days post-election with no corrections mentioned makes this negligible
Alternative calculation methodology: Some non-standard definition of 'margin of victory' - but this is not a credible risk given standard political terminology
Edge Assessment.
STRONG EDGE - MARKET IS MISPRICED: Current market odds of 0.009 (0.9% probability of Yes) suggest the market believes there's a 0.9% chance this bet resolves to Yes. However, the event has already occurred with deterministic results. The probability should be exactly 0%. The market is offering a tiny edge to anyone willing to bet No, though at 0.9% the mispricing is negligible in practical terms. This appears to be residual probability reflecting either: (1) market participants not yet aware of the definitive results, (2) extreme tail risk pricing for unprecedented court intervention, or (3) illiquidity preventing full convergence to 0%. The correct price is 0% Yes / 100% No. There is no value in betting Yes at any positive price, and minimal value in betting No at implied 99.1% given transaction costs.
What Would Change Our Mind.
A court ordering a complete re-vote with different results showing No winning by 0-3%
Discovery that the published April 21, 2026 election results were fraudulent or miscalculated, with corrected totals showing No margin between 0% and 3%
Official recount changing approximately 110,000+ votes from Yes to No, moving the margin into the specified range
Clarification of resolution criteria using a non-standard definition of 'margin of victory' that would yield a positive result for the losing side (extremely implausible)
Sources.
- Virginia Redistricting Amendment Results - April 21, 2026 Special Election
- FOMC Meeting Results and Jerome Powell Final Press Conference - April 29, 2026
- March 2026 Economic Data: CPI, Employment, and Inflation Metrics
- Iran Conflict Impact on Energy Markets and Global Economy - April 2026
- Kevin Warsh Nomination Advances from Senate Banking Committee
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