kalshiMay 11, 2026Just nowWill the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?
Will the margin of victory for No in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 0% and 3%?
Signal
SELL
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
100%
Summary.
This market asks whether "No" won the April 21, 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment with a margin of 0-3%. However, the official certified results show No received 48.31% versus Yes at 51.69%—meaning No LOST by 3.38 percentage points. A losing side cannot have a positive margin of victory. The market currently prices this at 0.85% probability of Yes resolution (99.15% for No), slightly underestimating the certainty. My estimated probability is 0.0% for Yes resolution (100% for No). The election has already occurred, results are certified, and while the Virginia Supreme Court nullified the election on May 8, 2026 due to procedural violations, this doesn't change the historical vote tallies. The resolution criteria are unambiguous: No must have won with a margin between 0% and 3%, which categorically did not happen. The small residual market probability likely reflects misunderstanding of the question, minimum tick sizes, or confusion about the court nullification's impact on resolution.
Reasoning.
Step-by-Step Analysis
Context: This market asks whether the margin of victory for "No" in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 0% and 3% (inclusive lower, exclusive upper bound).
Critical Facts:
- Election occurred on April 21, 2026 - already in the past as of May 11, 2026
- Official certified results: Yes: 51.69% (1,604,276 votes), No: 48.31% (1,499,393 votes)
- No LOST the election by 3.38 percentage points - Yes won by +3.38%
- Margin of victory for No = -3.38% (negative because No lost)
- Virginia Supreme Court ruling (May 8, 2026) voided the election results due to procedural violations
Resolution Logic: The resolution criteria require "No" to have won with a margin between 0% and 3%. For No to have a positive margin of victory, No must have received MORE votes than Yes.
In reality:
- No received 48.31% vs Yes 51.69%
- No lost by 3.38 points
- Margin of victory for No = -3.38% (not between 0% and 3%)
Does the Supreme Court nullification change the outcome? No. The court voided the election results, but the market resolution criteria are based on the actual margin in the election that occurred. The nullification means the amendment doesn't take effect legally, but it doesn't change what the vote tallies were. Even if we interpret "nullified" as meaning "no valid result exists," the market would resolve No because the specific condition (No winning by 0-3%) was not met.
Temporal Grounding: As of May 11, 2026:
- The election is in the past (April 21, 2026)
- Results are certified and official
- Supreme Court ruling is final (May 8, 2026)
- All relevant events have already occurred
Conclusion: This market should resolve to NO with 100% certainty. The "No" side did not win the election (it lost), so it cannot have a positive margin of victory, let alone one between 0% and 3%. The market's current pricing of 0.85% probability for Yes resolution appears to be nearly correct, with the residual 0.85% likely representing either:
- Traders who misunderstood the question
- Uncertainty about resolution interpretation
- Market inefficiency/minimum tick size
There is zero ambiguity here - this is a retrospective question about a completed event with certified official results.
Key Factors.
Official certified election results show No received 48.31% vs Yes 51.69%
No lost the election by 3.38 percentage points (negative margin of victory)
Resolution criteria require No to WIN with margin between 0% and 3%
Election already occurred on April 21, 2026 - this is retrospective, not predictive
Supreme Court nullification (May 8, 2026) voids legal effect but doesn't change vote tallies
No ambiguity in data: all sources are official government records
Market pricing (0.85% Yes probability) correctly reflects near-certainty of No resolution
Scenarios.
Base Case: Market Resolves No (No Lost Election)
100%The official certified results show No received 48.31% and Yes received 51.69%. No lost by 3.38 percentage points, meaning the margin of victory for No is negative (-3.38%), which does not fall between 0% and 3%. The market resolves to No.
Trigger: Official Virginia State Board of Elections certified results from April 21, 2026, showing Yes won by 3.38 points. This evidence already exists and is final.
Alternative Interpretation: Nullification Creates Ambiguity
0%Some might argue the Supreme Court's May 8, 2026 nullification means there was 'no valid election,' creating ambiguity about how to calculate the margin. However, this interpretation fails because the resolution criteria clearly refer to 'the margin of victory for No' in the election that occurred, and those vote totals are matters of historical record.
Trigger: Would require resolution source to interpret nullified election differently than the plain reading of certified vote tallies. No evidence supports this interpretation.
Data Error Scenario
0%The certified election results are incorrect due to counting errors or fraud, and corrected results would show No won by 0-3%. This is theoretically possible but has zero probability given: (1) results are officially certified, (2) Supreme Court ruling addressed procedural issues, not vote counting, (3) no challenges to vote tallies exist, and (4) we are 20 days post-election.
Trigger: Would require discovery of systematic vote counting errors and recertification showing No won by 0-3%. No evidence of counting disputes exists.
Risks.
Misinterpretation of resolution criteria by resolution source (extremely unlikely given clear language)
Previously unknown vote counting errors discovered (no evidence, highly improbable 20 days after certification)
Resolution source treats nullified election as having 'no result' in unexpected way (inconsistent with plain language of criteria)
Market platform technical error in resolution (operational risk, not analytical)
Edge Assessment.
STRONG EDGE: SHORT (Bet on No resolution)
Market: 0.85% probability of Yes resolution (99.15% implied for No) My estimate: 0.0% probability of Yes resolution (100% for No)
Edge magnitude: Small in absolute terms (0.85 percentage points) but infinite in relative terms (market assigns non-zero probability to impossible outcome).
Recommendation: At 0.85% odds for Yes, there is value betting on No resolution if the payout structure is favorable. However, the absolute edge is tiny - you'd need to risk $99.15 to win $0.85 profit on fair odds. Given the certainty of the outcome, this is theoretically +EV but practically may not be worth transaction costs.
Why edge exists: The residual 0.85% likely represents:
- Market participants who misread the question (thought it asked about Yes margin, or didn't understand negative margins)
- Minimum tick size / platform constraints preventing perfect pricing
- Liquidity providers maintaining small spreads
- Possibility that some traders are confused by the Supreme Court nullification
Confidence in edge: Extremely high (100%). This is a resolved historical event with certified official data.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Discovery of systematic vote counting errors leading to recertification showing No actually won by 0-3% margin (no evidence exists and certification deadline has passed)
Resolution source interpreting 'nullified election' as meaning no measurable margin exists, creating unexpected resolution ambiguity (inconsistent with plain language of criteria)
Virginia State Board of Elections issuing corrected results reversing the outcome within the specified margin range (extraordinarily unlikely 20 days post-election with no counting disputes)
Sources.
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