Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's next Attorney General?

Step-by-step Analysis (as of May 10, 2026)

Context: Pam Bondi was fired as AG on April 2, 2026. Todd Blanche became Acting AG immediately and is actively "auditioning" for permanent appointment. The question asks if Ron DeSantis will be the first new person appointed AG before January 20, 2029.

Key Evidence Against DeSantis as AG:

1. Incumbent advantage: Todd Blanche is Acting AG and Trump explicitly told him to view this as a "tryout" - historical base rate strongly favors Acting AGs being nominated permanently
2. DeSantis public denials: DeSantis stated "I was never offered or asked for anything" and his spokesperson called reports "fake rumors" (late April 2026)
3. DeSantis preferences: Sources close to DeSantis indicate he prefers Defense Secretary or Supreme Court over AG
4. 2028 presidential ambitions: DeSantis refuses to rule out 2028 run (May 5, 2026) - AG is historically a politically risky role that could damage presidential prospects
5. Other frontrunner: Lee Zeldin (EPA Administrator) widely reported as top contender
6. DeSantis gubernatorial term: Ends January 2027, creating timing complications

Key Evidence For DeSantis as AG:

1. Trump's comments: Trump told confidants in late April that DeSantis was "begging" for AG role specifically
2. Relationship thaw: Private lunch at Trump Doral on April 12, 2026 signals reconciliation after bitter 2024 primary
3. Trump's unpredictability: History of sudden reversals and preference for high-profile loyalists
4. Timeline: Nearly 3 years until resolution deadline (Jan 20, 2029) - if Blanche or Zeldin fail, DeSantis could still be option

Critical Resolution Criteria: DeSantis must be the FIRST new person appointed. If Blanche is formally nominated (even if later removed), or if Zeldin or anyone else is appointed first, the market resolves No.

Probability Assessment:

• Base case (85%): Todd Blanche gets formal nomination OR Lee Zeldin appointed → Market resolves No
• Alternative scenario (11%): Someone other than DeSantis but not Blanche/Zeldin appointed first → Market resolves No
• DeSantis scenario (4%): Trump bypasses Blanche despite "audition," overcomes DeSantis's public denials and political calculations, appoints DeSantis first → Market resolves Yes

The 3.15% market odds appear slightly underpriced given:

• Trump's unpredictability factor
• The specific mention of DeSantis "begging" for AG role
• Long resolution timeline (nearly 3 years) creates multiple scenarios
• DeSantis's non-categorical denial ("not entirely ruling out")

However, the weight of evidence strongly suggests Blanche (incumbent Acting AG with Trump's explicit endorsement) or Zeldin (widely reported frontrunner) will be appointed first. DeSantis's 2028 ambitions, public denials, stated preferences for other roles, and the historical rarity of bypassing an Acting AG all point to very low probability.

Estimated probability: 4% (vs market's 3.15%) - slight edge but within margin of uncertainty.

Minimal edge. My estimate of 4% vs market's 3.15% represents only 0.85 percentage points difference - within the margin of uncertainty for this type of political prediction.

The market appears reasonably calibrated. The low probability correctly reflects that DeSantis faces multiple obstacles: incumbent Acting AG with Trump's endorsement, DeSantis's public denials, his 2028 ambitions, his stated preference for other roles, and historical precedent against bypassing Acting AGs.

The slight underpricing (if real) stems from: (1) Trump's specific mention of DeSantis "begging" for AG role, (2) Trump's unpredictability, (3) the long 3-year resolution window creating more scenarios, and (4) DeSantis's non-categorical denial.

However, at these low probabilities (3-4%), the difference is not actionable. No clear edge exists. Would need the market to be pricing DeSantis below 2% or above 7% to justify strong conviction in either direction. The 3.15% market price appears fair given available information as of May 10, 2026.