kalshiMay 28, 202630d agoWill Andrew Bailey be Trump's next Attorney General?
Will Andrew Bailey be the first new person to be Attorney General before January 20, 2029?
Signal
SELL
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
99%
Summary.
This market should resolve to NO with near-absolute certainty (estimated probability: 99.99% NO / 0.01% YES) due to an already-determined historical fact. The resolution criterion explicitly requires Andrew Bailey to be the "FIRST new person" to become Attorney General before January 20, 2029. However, Pam Bondi already satisfied this condition when she was confirmed as Attorney General on February 4, 2025—over 15 months ago. Even if Andrew Bailey were nominated and confirmed as AG today, he would be the second or third new AG, not the first. The "first" position is a one-time historical event that cannot be retroactively changed. The current market probability of 1.35% YES appears to reflect severe mispricing, likely due to participants misunderstanding the resolution criteria, stale positions, or market inefficiency. This represents approximately a 135x overpricing of the YES outcome.
Reasoning.
This market should resolve to NO with near-absolute certainty due to a clearly determined historical fact.
Critical Resolution Criterion Analysis: The bet explicitly asks: "Will Andrew Bailey be the FIRST new person to be Attorney General before January 20, 2029?"
Historical Timeline (as of May 28, 2026):
- February 4, 2025: Pam Bondi was confirmed as U.S. Attorney General (54-46 Senate vote), becoming the FIRST new person to hold the position in the current administration
- September 15, 2025: Andrew Bailey became Co-Deputy Director of the FBI (different role)
- April 2, 2026: Pam Bondi dismissed; Todd Blanche became Acting AG
- May 28, 2026 (TODAY): Lee Zeldin reportedly top of shortlist for permanent AG
Why This Resolves to NO: The resolution criterion requires Bailey to be the "FIRST new person" to become Attorney General. This is a one-time historical event that has already occurred - Pam Bondi satisfied this condition on February 4, 2025, over 15 months ago.
Even if Andrew Bailey were nominated, confirmed, and became Attorney General tomorrow, he would be the second or third new AG, not the first. The "first" position is permanently occupied by Bondi in the historical record.
Market Mispricing: The current 1.35% market probability appears to reflect:
- Market inefficiency/residual liquidity
- Participants misunderstanding the resolution criteria
- Stale positions that haven't been updated
The true probability is effectively 0%, with only infinitesimal tail risk for extraordinary scenarios (e.g., some kind of constitutional crisis that retroactively invalidates Bondi's appointment, which is not legally plausible).
Estimated Probability: 0.01% (0.0001) This represents near-certainty of NO resolution, with the tiny remainder accounting only for completely unforeseen legal/constitutional impossibilities.
Key Factors.
Pam Bondi was confirmed as first new AG on February 4, 2025 - this is established historical fact
Resolution criterion explicitly requires Bailey to be the FIRST new person to become AG
The 'first' position is a one-time historical event that cannot be retroactively changed
Andrew Bailey currently serves as FBI Co-Deputy Director, not in AG consideration
Even if Bailey becomes AG in the future, he would be 2nd or 3rd new AG, not first
Market pricing at 1.35% suggests severe mispricing or misunderstanding of resolution criteria
Scenarios.
Base Case: Market Resolves NO
100%The market correctly resolves to NO because Pam Bondi was the first new person to become Attorney General on February 4, 2025. Andrew Bailey cannot retroactively become the 'first' person to hold this position, regardless of any future appointments.
Trigger: Historical fact already established: Bondi's confirmation occurred 15+ months ago. No evidence or events needed - this has already been determined.
Extreme Tail: Constitutional Crisis
0%Some extraordinary legal or constitutional event retroactively invalidates Bondi's appointment as AG (e.g., discovery she was constitutionally ineligible, unprecedented Supreme Court ruling). This would be legally unprecedented and implausible.
Trigger: Would require: Supreme Court ruling that Bondi's appointment was constitutionally void ab initio (from the beginning), making her legally never the AG. No historical precedent exists for this scenario with a confirmed Cabinet member.
Bailey Becomes Next AG (Irrelevant)
5%Andrew Bailey is nominated and confirmed as the next permanent AG, replacing Acting AG Todd Blanche. While possible (though Lee Zeldin is reportedly favored), this scenario still results in NO resolution because Bailey would be the second or third new AG, not the first.
Trigger: Bailey nomination announced, Senate confirmation. However, this does NOT change the resolution outcome - market still resolves NO.
Risks.
Unprecedented constitutional ruling invalidating Bondi's appointment retroactively (extremely implausible)
Misinterpretation of resolution criteria by arbiters (though criteria is unambiguous)
Unknown legal technicality that could somehow void Bondi's tenure (no precedent exists)
Data error: Bondi confirmation did not actually occur (contradicts multiple verified sources)
Edge Assessment.
EXTREME EDGE OPPORTUNITY: The market is severely mispriced.
Market Probability: 1.35% (YES) Estimated True Probability: 0.01% (YES)
Edge Magnitude: The market is overpricing YES by approximately 135x. The NO side at implied 98.65% should be closer to 99.99%.
Recommendation: This represents an exceptional arbitrage opportunity to bet NO. The resolution outcome is effectively predetermined by historical fact - Pam Bondi was the first new AG on February 4, 2025.
Why the mispricing exists:
- Participants may be betting on Bailey becoming any AG, not understanding the "FIRST" criterion
- Market may have stale liquidity from before Bondi's confirmation
- Participants may not have researched the historical timeline
- Low-liquidity market with inefficient price discovery
Risk-Adjusted Edge: Even accounting for platform risk, counterparty risk, and time value of money (locked until Jan 2029), this is near-certain profit. The only meaningful risk is the prediction market platform itself failing or misresolving despite clear criteria.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Discovery of credible evidence that Pam Bondi's confirmation as Attorney General on February 4, 2025, did not actually occur or was factually misreported by all sources
Unprecedented Supreme Court ruling declaring Bondi's appointment constitutionally void ab initio (from the beginning), legally erasing her tenure entirely - though no historical precedent exists for this
Official clarification from Kalshi that the resolution criteria will be interpreted differently than the explicit 'FIRST new person' language states
Evidence that Todd Blanche or another person was actually confirmed as permanent AG before Bondi, contradicting the current historical record
Sources.
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