kalshiJune 10, 202615d agoWill Todd Blanche be Trump's next Attorney General?
Will Todd Blanche be the first new person to serve as Attorney General before January 20, 2029?
Signal
SELL
Probability
58%
Confidence
MEDIUM
65%
Summary.
My estimated probability for Todd Blanche's confirmation is 58%, compared to the market's implied probability of 62.5%, representing a modest 4.5 percentage point edge toward NO. While Blanche was formally nominated just two days ago (June 8, 2026) after serving as Acting AG since April, he faces significant headwinds: Republicans can only afford to lose 3 votes, yet 2 senators (Tillis and Cornyn) have already publicly withheld support, and Senator Cruz described a "full-on revolt" over the toxic $1.776 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund settlement. Senate Majority Leader Thune's warning that "nothing's a safe or sure bet" signals unusual leadership concern for a presidential nominee. The market appears slightly optimistic given the documented GOP opposition, the extreme political toxicity of a settlement that permanently bars IRS audits of Trump's family while funding January 6 participants, and the confirmation hearing risks where public testimony could produce additional defections. However, the edge is modest—the market may have superior vote-counting intelligence from Senate insiders, and historical base rates favor Acting officials being confirmed to permanent roles (~85%).
Reasoning.
Timeline and Context (As of June 10, 2026):
- Todd Blanche has been serving as Acting Attorney General since April 2, 2026 (68 days)
- Formally nominated by the White House on June 8, 2026 (2 days ago)
- Resolution window extends to January 20, 2029 (2.6+ years)
- Must be the FIRST new permanent AG appointed after Bondi to resolve YES
Key Vote Math: Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority requiring VP Vance as tiebreaker if exactly 50 Republicans vote YES. This means:
- Can afford to lose only 3 Republican votes
- 2 Republicans (Tillis, Cornyn) are publicly withholding support
- Only 1 additional defection would make confirmation uncertain
- Sen. Cruz described "full-on revolt" suggesting broader private opposition
Critical Obstacles:
-
The Anti-Weaponization Fund Controversy: The $1.776B settlement that permanently bars IRS audits of Trump family and funds January 6 participants has drawn "severe bipartisan pushback." This is highly toxic politically.
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Tillis's Conditional Vote: Sen. Tillis explicitly requires Blanche to condemn January 6 riot. If Blanche does this, he risks alienating Trump; if he refuses, he loses Tillis's vote definitively.
-
Leadership Warning: Senate Majority Leader Thune saying "nothing's a safe or sure bet" is a significant red flag - leadership typically projects confidence for nominees they expect to confirm.
-
Confirmation Hearing Risk: Public testimony will force Blanche to defend the settlement under oath, potentially creating additional defections or forcing withdrawal.
Scenarios Favoring YES (58% probability):
- Blanche threads the needle on January 6 comments satisfying Tillis without losing Trump support
- Private GOP opposition doesn't materialize into public votes
- Administration applies pressure/offers concessions to wavering senators
- No alternative candidate emerges, creating path of least resistance
- Historical base rate: Acting officials nominated by same president confirm ~85% of time
Scenarios Favoring NO (42% probability):
- 4+ Republican defections emerge (only need 1 more beyond Tillis/Cornyn)
- Blanche withdraws nomination if vote count becomes untenable
- Confirmation hearings produce disqualifying revelations or statements
- Trump loses patience and nominates someone else before Senate votes
- Settlement controversy intensifies, making Blanche politically toxic
Market Calibration: Market odds of 62.5% appear reasonably well-calibrated but slightly optimistic given:
- Documented GOP revolt and leadership skepticism
- Extremely controversial policy position (the settlement)
- Narrow margin for error (1 additional defection creates crisis)
My estimate of 58% reflects:
- Slight discount from market consensus due to understated confirmation hearing risks
- Consideration that "full-on revolt" language suggests more than 2 opponents
- Recognition that the settlement is uniquely toxic (combining Trump personal enrichment, IRS prohibition, and January 6 funding)
- Long resolution window (2.6 years) creates multiple opportunities for alternative scenarios
Edge Assessment: Modest edge toward NO (betting against confirmation at current 62.5% odds). The 4.5 percentage point difference suggests the market may be underweighting the severity of the documented Republican opposition and the political toxicity of the Anti-Weaponization Fund.
Key Factors.
Senate Republican vote count: Only 3-vote margin with 2 public holdouts already identified
Anti-Weaponization Fund toxicity: $1.776B settlement with IRS audit prohibition and January 6 funding creates bipartisan opposition
Senate Majority Leader Thune's warning that confirmation is not a 'safe or sure bet' signals leadership concern
Tillis's conditional support requiring January 6 condemnation creates impossible political triangle for Blanche
Historical base rate: Acting officials nominated to permanent roles by same president confirm ~85%, but controversial nominations with same-party opposition drop to 70-75%
Senator Cruz's description of 'full-on revolt' suggests broader opposition beyond the 2 public holdouts
Confirmation hearing risk: Public testimony will force defense of settlement under oath, creating additional defection opportunities
Long resolution window (2.6+ years) provides ample time for alternative scenarios including withdrawal, failed vote, or different nominee
Scenarios.
Confirmation Success (Base Case)
58%Blanche successfully navigates confirmation hearings, provides sufficient January 6 condemnation to secure Tillis's vote, and Republican leadership corrals the caucus. The Acting-to-permanent pathway, combined with lack of alternative candidates, creates momentum for confirmation. Vote occurs within 60-90 days with 51-53 Republican votes.
Trigger: Blanche makes carefully calibrated January 6 statement; Tillis announces support; Judiciary Committee advances nomination on party-line vote; no additional Republican defections emerge during hearings
Nomination Withdrawn or Failed
35%The Anti-Weaponization Fund controversy proves insurmountable. Either 4+ Republicans publicly oppose (making confirmation mathematically impossible), or Blanche/Trump withdraw the nomination before a failed floor vote. Trump nominates a different candidate who becomes the first new permanent AG.
Trigger: Additional Republican Senators (beyond Tillis/Cornyn) announce opposition; damaging testimony emerges in confirmation hearings; Blanche withdraws; Trump announces alternative nominee; floor vote fails
Extended Delay with Alternative Outcome
7%Confirmation process stalls for many months due to controversy. Political circumstances change (midterm elections, new scandals, administration priorities shift), and either a different candidate is eventually nominated, or Blanche remains Acting AG through January 2029 without ever being confirmed, making someone else the first new permanent AG.
Trigger: Senate Judiciary delays hearings indefinitely; 2026 midterms shift political calculus; Blanche serves as Acting AG for 18+ months without confirmation vote; Trump pivots to different nominee in 2027-2028
Risks.
Private Republican opposition may be overstated - senators often voice concerns but ultimately vote with president
Trump's personal loyalty to Blanche (his former attorney) may drive unprecedented pressure campaign on wavering senators
Tillis may accept weak or ambiguous January 6 statement, removing key obstacle
Research may not capture recent developments in the 2 days since nomination (June 8-10, 2026)
Confirmation hearings could go better than expected if Blanche is an effective witness
Alternative nominee scenarios depend on Trump's willingness to abandon Blanche, which is uncertain
Senate procedural timeline is unclear - vote could happen quickly before opposition solidifies
Market at 62.5% may already incorporate non-public vote-counting intelligence from Senate insiders
Base rates may not apply well to unique Trump administration dynamics and unprecedented settlement controversy
Edge Assessment.
MODEST EDGE TOWARD NO: My estimate of 58% vs market odds of 62.5% suggests a 4.5 percentage point edge favoring a bet against Blanche's confirmation.
The market appears slightly optimistic given: (1) documented "full-on revolt" language from Sen. Cruz suggesting opposition beyond the 2 public holdouts, (2) Senate Majority Leader's unusually cautious language about confirmation prospects, (3) the extreme political toxicity of the Anti-Weaponization Fund combining Trump personal benefit, IRS prohibition, and January 6 funding, and (4) confirmation hearing risks where public testimony could create additional defections.
However, this is a MODEST edge (not strong), and the market may have access to better vote-counting intelligence. Political prediction markets often incorporate insider knowledge from Senate staffers and lobbyists that exceeds publicly available information. The 62.5% pricing is within reasonable range and possibly well-informed.
RECOMMENDATION: Weak bet against confirmation at current odds, but position size should be small given uncertainty and possibility that market has superior information about private vote counts.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Senator Tillis announces support for Blanche after receiving satisfactory January 6 condemnation statement
Senate Judiciary Committee schedules confirmation hearing within 2 weeks, signaling leadership confidence in vote count
Additional Republican senators (beyond those already supportive) publicly endorse Blanche's nomination
Blanche successfully testifies in confirmation hearings without new Republican defections emerging
Credible reporting indicates private GOP whip count shows 50+ committed YES votes
The Anti-Weaponization Fund settlement is modified, withdrawn, or legally challenged in ways that reduce political toxicity
A third or fourth Republican senator publicly announces opposition, making confirmation mathematically impossible and increasing NO probability toward 80-90%
Trump publicly criticizes Blanche or signals consideration of alternative candidates
Senate Majority Leader Thune changes tone to express confidence in confirmation prospects
Sources.
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