kalshiJune 17, 202611h agoWho will be Trump's next Attorney General? (Todd Blanche)
Will Todd Blanche be Trump's next Attorney General?
Signal
SELL
Probability
68%
Confidence
MEDIUM
55%
Summary.
The market prices Todd Blanche's confirmation as Attorney General at 76.5%, while my analysis estimates a 68% probability—an 8.5 percentage point gap suggesting modest overconfidence. Blanche has been Acting AG since April 2026 and was formally nominated on June 8, with Senate Judiciary hearings scheduled for July 15-16. While favorable factors include Republican Senate control, prior confirmation as Deputy AG, and Judiciary Chair Grassley's support, significant risks remain: key GOP senators Cornyn and Tillis are publicly undecided with explicit warnings about the controversial $1.776 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund (blocked by federal judge in May), narrow Republican margins require near-unanimous party support, and the critical hearings haven't occurred yet. The market appears to be overweighting Trump's backing and Blanche's incumbent status while underweighting genuine intra-party uncertainty ahead of the July hearings, which represent a major information discovery event. Historical base rates (85-90% for same-party AG nominations) support confirmation, but mid-term replacements with controversy face heightened scrutiny, and Trump's previous AG nominees passed on narrow margins (52-47, 54-45).
Reasoning.
Step-by-step analysis:
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Current Status (as of June 17, 2026):
- Todd Blanche is serving as Acting AG since April 2, 2026
- Formally nominated on June 8, 2026
- Senate Judiciary hearings scheduled for July 15-16, 2026 (28 days from now)
- Market pricing at 76.5%
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Base Rate Analysis:
- Historical AG confirmation rate with same-party Senate: 85-90%
- Mid-term replacements face higher scrutiny
- Trump's prior AG nominees (Sessions 52-47, Barr 54-45) suggest tight margins possible
- Controversial nominees with intra-party opposition: 75-85% success rate
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Key Favorable Factors:
- Republicans control Senate (assumed)
- Blanche already confirmed as Deputy AG in March 2025 (passed Senate vetting once)
- Trump has nominated him formally - strong presidential backing
- Senate Judiciary Chair Grassley (R-IA) has expressed support
- Blanche testified that Anti-Weaponization Fund is dead ("not moving forward, period")
- Already serving as Acting AG with on-the-job experience
- Resolution window extends to January 2029 (2.5+ years remaining)
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Key Risk Factors:
- Key GOP senators (Cornyn, Tillis) publicly undecided as of June 15
- Tillis explicitly warned confirmation "at risk" if Anti-Weaponization Fund not "effectively dead"
- $1.776B fund blocked by federal judge, caused bipartisan backlash
- Crypto conflict-of-interest: $485K holdings while disbanding crypto enforcement team
- Unified Democratic opposition expected
- Republicans need near-unanimous support (narrow margin)
- Hearings haven't occurred yet - unknown unknowns could emerge
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Probability Adjustment:
- Base rate: 85% for same-party AG with controversy discount → ~75-80%
- Undecided GOP senators with public warnings: -5 to -10 points
- Crypto conflict issue (secondary): -2 to -3 points
- Blanche's testimony mitigating fund concerns: +3 to +5 points
- Already served as Deputy AG (credibility): +2 to +3 points
- Net estimate: 68%
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Market Comparison:
- Market at 76.5% appears slightly overconfident
- Hearings haven't occurred yet - critical information discovery event ahead
- Undecided GOP senators represent genuine uncertainty
- Market may be overweighting Trump backing and underweighting intra-party tension
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Edge Assessment:
- Market odds at 76.5% vs. estimated 68% = ~8.5 percentage point difference
- This represents modest value on "No" but within margin of uncertainty
- Confidence is moderate (0.55) due to unknowns from upcoming hearings
Key Factors.
GOP senators Cornyn and Tillis publicly undecided with explicit warnings about Anti-Weaponization Fund
Upcoming July 15-16 hearings are critical information discovery event - outcomes unknown
Blanche's June testimony claiming fund is 'dead' may or may not satisfy skeptical Republicans
Narrow Senate GOP margin requires near-unanimous party support
Blanche already confirmed as Deputy AG in 2025 (positive credibility signal)
Historical base rate: 85-90% for same-party AG nominations but mid-term replacements face higher scrutiny
Crypto conflict-of-interest ($485K holdings, disbanded enforcement team) as secondary concern
Resolution window extends to Jan 2029 - allows for alternative nominees or delayed confirmation
Scenarios.
Confirmation Success (Base Case)
68%Blanche's July hearings go smoothly. GOP senators accept his testimony that the Anti-Weaponization Fund is definitively abandoned. Crypto holdings are disclosed but deemed not disqualifying. Cornyn and Tillis vote yes along with other Republicans. Senate confirms Blanche by late July or early August 2026 with a narrow but sufficient margin (52-48 or 53-47 assuming ~53 GOP senators).
Trigger: Positive statements from Cornyn/Tillis after hearings; no major revelations during testimony; Senate Judiciary Committee vote advances nomination; floor vote scheduled within 2-3 weeks of committee approval
Confirmation Failure - Alternative Nominee
24%During July hearings, GOP senators remain unsatisfied with Blanche's answers on the Anti-Weaponization Fund or new controversies emerge. Tillis, Cornyn, and 1-2 other Republicans vote against in committee or signal opposition. Trump either withdraws nomination or Blanche fails floor vote. Trump nominates alternative candidate (possibly more conventional/less controversial) who gets confirmed by early 2027.
Trigger: Negative GOP senator statements post-hearings; committee vote fails or advances with multiple GOP defections; Trump announces withdrawal or pivot to new nominee; media reports of Senate whip count showing insufficient votes
Delayed Confirmation or Recess Appointment
6%Nomination stalls due to GOP divisions but doesn't outright fail. Blanche continues as Acting AG through 2026. Either: (a) Trump uses recess appointment during congressional break to install Blanche permanently without vote, or (b) political dynamics shift (midterms, changing priorities) allowing eventual confirmation in 2027.
Trigger: Committee delays vote beyond July; Senate Majority Leader doesn't schedule floor vote; Trump announces recess appointment during August/holiday break; Blanche remains in acting capacity for 6+ months
Trump Chooses Different Nominee Entirely
2%Before or immediately after failed hearings, Trump decides to pivot entirely away from Blanche due to political calculation. Nominates high-profile alternative (former senator, governor, or judge) who sails through confirmation. Less likely given formal nomination already submitted and Blanche's close relationship with Trump.
Trigger: Trump announces new nominee before/during hearings; Blanche nomination formally withdrawn; Media reports of Trump dissatisfaction or strategic pivot
Risks.
Hearings produce unexpected revelations or damaging testimony that swings additional GOP senators to 'no'
Anti-Weaponization Fund controversy proves more damaging than anticipated despite Blanche's assurances
Research may not reflect full Senate GOP composition or exact margin of control
Trump could impulsively withdraw nomination or pivot to different candidate before hearings
Recess appointment possibility could bypass Senate entirely (would still count as 'Yes' if legally valid)
Democratic opposition more effective at peeling off moderate Republicans than anticipated
Crypto industry lobbying or ethics complaints escalate conflict-of-interest concerns
Market may have insider information about private GOP senator commitments not reflected in public 'undecided' statements
Overconfidence in base rates - each nomination is unique and Trump-era norms differ from historical patterns
Edge Assessment.
MODEST EDGE ON 'NO': Market probability of 76.5% appears 8-9 percentage points higher than estimated 68%. The market may be overweighting Trump's backing and Blanche's Acting AG status while underweighting the genuine uncertainty from undecided GOP senators and upcoming hearings. However, confidence is only moderate (0.55) because hearings could swing either direction and market may have information about private senator commitments. The edge is real but not overwhelming - this is a closer call than market pricing suggests. Value exists on 'No' at current odds, but position sizing should be modest given uncertainty.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Cornyn, Tillis, or other undecided GOP senators publicly commit to supporting Blanche before or immediately after the July 15-16 hearings
July hearings conclude with overwhelmingly positive GOP senator statements and no major controversies emerging
Senate Judiciary Committee advances nomination with unanimous or near-unanimous Republican support
Credible reporting of Senate whip counts showing Blanche has secured 50+ commitments
Trump announces plans for recess appointment, bypassing Senate vote entirely
New polling or reporting reveals the Anti-Weaponization Fund controversy has dissipated among Republican senators
Alternative nominee emerges with stronger support, indicating Blanche nomination will be withdrawn
Sources.
- Kalshi Market: Will Todd Blanche be Trump's next Attorney General?
- Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi
- Trump announces Todd Blanche nomination for Attorney General
- Senate Judiciary Committee schedules Blanche confirmation hearings
- DOJ Anti-Weaponization Fund controversy and court block
- Todd Blanche congressional testimony on Anti-Weaponization Fund
- Blanche cryptocurrency policy and financial disclosures
- GOP Senators remain undecided on Blanche nomination
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