Will Andrew Bailey be Trump's next Attorney General?

Step-by-Step Analysis (as of June 18, 2026)

1. Current Situation Assessment

• Todd Blanche is currently serving as Acting Attorney General (since April 2, 2026)
• Blanche was formally nominated for permanent AG on June 8, 2026 (10 days ago)
• He is actively undergoing Senate confirmation hearings
• Andrew Bailey is serving as Co-Deputy Director of the FBI (since September 2025)
• There is ZERO public indication that Bailey is being considered for Attorney General

2. Resolution Criteria Analysis The market resolves YES only if Andrew Bailey is the "first NEW person to serve as Attorney General" before January 20, 2029. This creates a critical question: Does Todd Blanche's current Acting AG status already disqualify Bailey from being "first"?

Interpretation 1 (Most Likely): If "Acting AG" counts as "serving," then Blanche has ALREADY become the first new AG after Bondi's firing in April 2026. This would mean Bailey cannot possibly be "first" - the market should resolve NO immediately or upon Blanche's confirmation.

Interpretation 2 (Less Likely): Only a Senate-confirmed, permanent AG counts. In this case, Bailey would need:

• Blanche's nomination to fail or be withdrawn
• Trump to then nominate Bailey instead
• Bailey to be confirmed by the Senate

3. Probability Assessment for Bailey Becoming AG

Base Rate Analysis:

• Historical precedent: When a sitting Acting official is formally nominated by POTUS, withdrawal/rejection rate is <5% absent major scandal
• No evidence of scandal, opposition, or problems with Blanche nomination
• Bailey has no apparent connection to AG consideration - he's in a completely different role (FBI)

Pathway Requirements for YES Resolution:

1. Blanche nomination fails/withdrawn (estimated 5% probability)
2. AND Trump decides to nominate Bailey instead of other candidates (estimated 2% probability - Bailey is one of many possible alternatives)
3. AND Bailey is confirmed by Senate (estimated 80% probability if nominated)

Combined pathway probability: 0.05 × 0.02 × 0.80 = 0.0008 (0.08%)

Alternative Interpretation Adjustment: If Acting AG already counts as "serving," probability drops to near-zero (~0.01%) since Bailey already cannot be "first"

4. Key Blocking Factors

• Blanche is the official nominee with no indication of problems
• Bailey is currently employed in a different senior federal position (FBI)
• No public reporting suggests Bailey is under consideration
• Senate confirmation, while uncertain in timing, historically succeeds for AG nominees absent disqualifying issues
• The 1.85% market price already reflects extreme unlikelihood

5. Final Estimate I estimate 0.5% probability (0.005), which is actually LOWER than the current market price of 1.85%.

The market may be slightly overpricing this due to:

• Uncertainty about resolution criteria interpretation
• General "anything can happen in Trump administration" premium
• Liquidity/speculation premium on low-probability events

My estimate assumes ~90% chance that Acting AG status already disqualifies Bailey from being "first" (making true probability ~0.01%), and ~10% chance that only confirmed AG counts (making pathway probability ~0.8% conditional on that interpretation).

Weighted estimate: 0.90 × 0.0001 + 0.10 × 0.008 = 0.0009 + 0.0008 = 0.0017 ≈ 0.2%

Being slightly conservative with uncertainty: 0.5% estimated probability

WEAK EDGE - Market appears reasonably calibrated. Current market odds of 1.85% vs my estimate of 0.5% suggests market is slightly overpricing this outcome, but the difference is small in absolute terms (1.35 percentage points). The market's higher price may reflect:

1. Legitimate uncertainty about resolution criteria interpretation
2. Rational premium for Trump administration unpredictability given recent AG turnover
3. Liquidity premium on low-probability event
4. Possible private information about Senate confirmation challenges

The edge is not strong enough to recommend significant position sizing. At best, this is a mild 'NO' (betting against Bailey) opportunity, but transaction costs and capital lockup until 2029 likely negate the small edge. Market pricing seems appropriately skeptical of Bailey's chances while acknowledging non-zero possibility of nomination failure and alternative selection.

Recommendation: No strong edge. Market is approximately correctly priced for this extremely low-probability event.