Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's next Attorney General?

This analysis focuses on political appointment dynamics rather than monetary policy, but requires systematic probabilistic reasoning about timing constraints and political factors.

Current Situation (as of May 8, 2026):

• Pam Bondi was fired as Attorney General on April 2, 2026 (36 days ago)
• Todd Blanche is currently serving as Acting Attorney General
• Ron DeSantis's Florida governorship ends in January 2027 (~8 months from now)
• Senate Republicans are pressuring Trump to nominate a permanent AG before November 2026 midterms (~6 months away)

Critical Resolution Constraint: The bet requires DeSantis to be the FIRST NEW PERSON to serve as AG. This creates a binary outcome: if Trump appoints anyone else first, the bet immediately resolves NO, regardless of whether DeSantis later becomes AG.

Probability Path Analysis:

For DeSantis to win this bet, ALL of the following must occur:

1. Trump must NOT appoint anyone else as AG between now and January 2027 (~8 months)
2. DeSantis must be available (post-governorship) starting January 2027
3. Trump must then nominate DeSantis as AG
4. Senate must confirm DeSantis
5. This must happen before January 20, 2029 (2 years, 8 months window after DeSantis becomes available)

Estimating Component Probabilities:

P(No other AG appointed before Jan 2027) = ~10-15%

• Historical precedent shows acting AGs are replaced within 2-4 months during unified government
• Senate Republicans are actively pressuring for permanent appointment before November midterms
• Frontrunners (Blanche, Zeldin) are already available
• Keeping an acting AG for 8+ months would be highly unusual
• However, Trump's unpredictability and potential strategic delay add tail risk

P(DeSantis nominated IF position open in Jan 2027) = ~30-40%

• Reporting indicates DeSantis is lobbying for multiple positions (AG, Defense, SCOTUS)
• Characterized as "begging" suggests desperation, not strong Trump preference
• Trump-DeSantis relationship historically contentious (2024 primary rivalry)
• By January 2027, political landscape may have shifted
• Other candidates will remain available

P(Senate confirmation IF nominated) = ~85%

• Republican Senate would likely confirm DeSantis given his conservative credentials
• However, some moderate Republicans might have concerns about his approach

Combined Probability Estimate: 0.12 (no other AG) × 0.35 (DeSantis nominated) × 0.85 (confirmed) = 0.036 or ~3.6%

Rounding to 0.035 (3.5%) given uncertainty in component estimates.

Market Comparison: Market odds: 2.9% My estimate: 3.5%

The difference is small (~0.6 percentage points). The market appears reasonably well-calibrated to the structural constraints. The slight upward adjustment reflects:

• Trump's documented unpredictability creating tail risk for unconventional moves
• Possibility Trump deliberately delays to accommodate DeSantis if strong preference exists
• 2+ year window after January 2027 provides ample time for appointment if position remains open

Key Uncertainties:

• Trump's actual preference for DeSantis vs. other candidates
• Whether Senate pressure will force earlier appointment
• Political dynamics in 8-month window before DeSantis availability
• Potential for DeSantis to resign governorship early (historically rare, would be politically costly)

NO SIGNIFICANT EDGE. My estimate of 3.5% is only 0.6 percentage points above the market's 2.9% odds - well within the margin of error and uncertainty. The market appears reasonably well-calibrated to the structural constraints:

1. The timing constraint (8-month gap before DeSantis availability) creates a fundamental hurdle that market correctly prices as high-probability for NO resolution
2. Historical precedent for acting AG duration strongly supports early permanent appointment
3. Senate Republican pressure for pre-midterm confirmation is well-documented
4. Multiple viable alternative candidates are immediately available

The slight difference between my 3.5% estimate and market's 2.9% likely reflects normal estimation uncertainty rather than market mispricing. Trump's unpredictability creates some tail risk that could justify the marginal difference, but not enough to constitute a betting edge.

VERDICT: Market appears efficient. No actionable edge for either YES or NO position at current odds. The 2.9% probability appropriately reflects this as a low-probability outcome dependent on multiple unlikely events occurring in sequence.