kalshiMarch 13, 202613d agoWill Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Will Mohsen Qomi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Signal
SELL
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
98%
Summary.
This market should resolve No with near-certainty (~99.9% probability) because the succession question has already been definitively answered. Mojtaba Khamenei was formally elected as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 8-9, 2026 (4-5 days ago) and confirmed via official state television by March 12. The resolution criteria requires Mohsen Qomi to be the "FIRST new person" to hold the Supreme Leader position—but that position is already filled by Mojtaba. The market's current 1¢ price (implying 1% Yes probability) significantly overvalues the Yes outcome by approximately 10x compared to the estimated fair value of ~0.1%. The residual 1¢ price likely reflects market illiquidity, trapped positions, or misunderstanding of the resolution criteria rather than genuine probability. There is zero historical precedent for reversing an Assembly of Experts appointment, and the Iranian constitutional process has been completed. The only pathway for a Yes resolution would require an unprecedented constitutional crisis that retroactively invalidates Mojtaba's appointment before it's considered official—an extraordinarily remote possibility given state confirmation has already occurred.
Reasoning.
Temporal Grounding (Today: March 13, 2026)
The succession question has been definitively resolved through formal constitutional process:
- Supreme Leader Khamenei killed: February 28, 2026 (13 days ago)
- Assembly of Experts formal election: March 8-9, 2026 (4-5 days ago)
- Official confirmation: Mojtaba Khamenei gave policy statements on state TV by March 12, 2026 (yesterday)
- Current status: Mojtaba Khamenei IS the Supreme Leader as of today
Resolution Criteria Analysis
The bet resolves Yes only if "the FIRST new person to hold the position of Supreme Leader of Iran after Issuance is Mohsen Qomi."
Critical fact: The first new Supreme Leader after issuance is Mojtaba Khamenei, not Mohsen Qomi. The succession has already occurred and been formalized.
Base Rate Context
- Only one prior succession in Iranian history (1989: Khomeini → Khamenei)
- That transition was definitive and irreversible once the Assembly of Experts made formal selection
- Zero historical precedent for reversing an Assembly of Experts appointment
Why the Market Shows 1¢ Instead of 0¢
The residual 1¢ price (down from 1-5¢ range before March 8-9) likely reflects:
- Market illiquidity: Trapped positions, thin trading
- Extreme tail speculation: Unfounded rumors about Mojtaba's potential injuries from strikes
- Misunderstanding of resolution criteria: Some traders may not understand the succession is already complete
Pathway Analysis for Qomi to Win This Bet
For this bet to resolve Yes, Mohsen Qomi would need to become Supreme Leader before Mojtaba. Since Mojtaba was formally appointed March 8-9 and confirmed March 12, this pathway is closed.
The only theoretically possible (but practically impossible) scenario would be:
- Iranian government retroactively invalidates Mojtaba's appointment (unprecedented)
- Assembly reconvenes and selects Qomi instead
- This happens before any official "first Supreme Leader" determination
Probability assessment: ~0.1% (essentially zero, with tiny allowance for completely unforeseen constitutional crisis)
Market Price Movement Assessment
The market correctly crashed from 1-5¢ to 1¢ after March 8-9 formal selection. The remaining 1¢ is overpriced given the succession is complete. The market should be trading at 0.1¢ or less given the definitiveness of the outcome.
Edge Assessment
Strong edge exists: Market at 1¢ (99% No) vs. estimated true probability of 99.9% No (0.1% Yes). The bet should resolve No with near-certainty. Even the current 1¢ price overvalues the Yes outcome by ~10x.
Key Factors.
Mojtaba Khamenei was formally elected Supreme Leader by Assembly of Experts on March 8-9, 2026 (already occurred)
Official Iranian state confirmation via television broadcasts by March 12, 2026 (already occurred)
Resolution criteria requires Qomi to be the FIRST new Supreme Leader - this pathway is closed since Mojtaba already holds position
Zero historical precedent for reversing an Assembly of Experts Supreme Leader appointment in Iranian history
Market has correctly moved from 1-5¢ range to 1¢ following formal selection, but residual price overvalues Yes outcome
Time until resolution (2045) is irrelevant - the 'first new' Supreme Leader has already been determined
Scenarios.
Base Case: Bet Resolves No (Mojtaba remains Supreme Leader)
100%Mojtaba Khamenei continues as Supreme Leader through resolution date (2045). The Assembly of Experts' March 8-9 formal election stands. Iranian constitutional process proceeded normally and irreversibly. Mohsen Qomi never becomes the 'first new' Supreme Leader because that position is already filled by Mojtaba.
Trigger: This is the current reality. No triggering event needed - Mojtaba's appointment is confirmed by state television and official government sources as of March 12, 2026.
Extreme Tail: Constitutional Crisis Invalidates Mojtaba
0%Unprecedented constitutional crisis leads to retroactive invalidation of Mojtaba's appointment before it is considered 'official' for resolution purposes. Assembly of Experts reconvenes and selects Mohsen Qomi instead. This would require complete breakdown of current institutional order and reinterpretation of what constitutes the 'first' Supreme Leader.
Trigger: Mass protests, military coup, or internal IRGC power struggle that delegitimizes Mojtaba within days. Assembly emergency session. Official state announcement invalidating March 8-9 selection. Zero historical precedent for this.
Technical Resolution Edge Case
0%Prediction market platform interprets resolution criteria in unexpected way due to ambiguity about when Mojtaba's appointment became 'official' vs. when interim council was operating. Platform retroactively determines succession is still 'open' for technical reasons.
Trigger: Dispute about resolution criteria interpretation. Platform clarification or arbitration ruling. This represents resolution uncertainty rather than actual succession uncertainty.
Risks.
Misunderstanding resolution criteria: If 'first new person' has technical interpretation I'm not considering
Information quality: Official Iranian government sources could be providing false information about Mojtaba's status
Unforeseen constitutional crisis: Complete breakdown of current institutional order in coming days that retroactively invalidates appointment
Mojtaba injury/death rumors: Unconfirmed reports about injuries could indicate he hasn't truly assumed power, though state TV confirmation contradicts this
Prediction market platform resolution ambiguity: Platform may have different interpretation of when succession is 'complete'
Edge Assessment.
Strong edge exists favoring No (shorting the Yes outcome). Market price of 1¢ implies 1% chance Qomi becomes first new Supreme Leader, but true probability is ~0.1%. The succession has already been definitively resolved through formal constitutional process - Mojtaba Khamenei was elected March 8-9 and confirmed by state media March 12.
The residual 1¢ price represents illiquidity, trapped positions, or extreme tail speculation without factual basis. The bet should be trading at 0.1¢ or lower given that the 'first new Supreme Leader' has already been determined and it is not Mohsen Qomi.
Recommended position: Short Yes / Long No if liquidity exists. The ~10x overvaluation of the Yes outcome (1¢ market vs 0.1¢ fair value) represents compelling value, though absolute profit potential is limited by the low price levels. Main risk is that market remains illiquid at 1¢ through resolution in 2045 with no ability to exit.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Official Iranian government announcement invalidating or reversing Mojtaba Khamenei's March 8-9 appointment by the Assembly of Experts
Credible evidence that Mojtaba's appointment was never formally completed or that he died/was incapacitated before officially assuming duties
Prediction market platform clarification stating the succession is still considered 'open' due to technical interpretation of resolution criteria
Major constitutional crisis or military coup in Iran within the next few days that delegitimizes the current succession process
Independent verification that Iranian state media confirmations of Mojtaba's assumption of power were fabricated or propaganda
Evidence of Assembly of Experts emergency reconvening to select a different Supreme Leader before Mojtaba's appointment is considered final
Sources.
Market History.
7-day range: 1¢ – 5¢.
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