kalshiApril 15, 202620h agoRafael López Aliaga finishes 2nd in first round of 2026 Peruvian presidential election
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Signal
SELL
Probability
8%
Confidence
HIGH
82%
Summary.
The market is significantly overpriced at 18%. With 91.4% of ballots counted as of today (April 15, 2026 - three days after the election), Rafael López Aliaga trails Roberto Sánchez by just 0.17 percentage points (11.90% vs 12.07%) for 2nd place. However, the critical factor is that the remaining 8.6% of uncounted votes are predominantly from remote rural areas that historically favor left-leaning candidates like Sánchez over conservative urban candidates like López Aliaga. While the margin is extremely narrow, the geographic composition of remaining ballots works strongly against López Aliaga. His fraud allegations have been dismissed by EU observers, reducing the likelihood of legal challenges altering certified results. The ensemble probability estimate is 8% (range: 4-10% across models), suggesting the market at 18% overweights the mathematical tightness of the race while underweighting the decisive demographic factor of where remaining votes originate. This represents a significant -10 percentage point edge.
Reasoning.
Temporal Context
Today is April 15, 2026. The Peruvian presidential election first round occurred April 12-13, 2026 (extended due to Lima ballot shortages). This is a RETROSPECTIVE analysis of near-complete results, not a forward-looking political forecast.
Current Vote Count (90-91.4% Counted)
- 1st: Keiko Fujimori: 17.04%
- 2nd: Roberto Sánchez: 12.07%
- 3rd: Rafael López Aliaga: 11.90%
- Margin: 0.17 percentage points (Sánchez leads)
Mathematical Path to 2nd Place
With 91.4% counted, approximately 8.6% remains. For López Aliaga to overtake Sánchez:
- Current deficit: ~0.17 percentage points
- Remaining votes: ~8.6% of total electorate
- Required performance: López Aliaga would need to win remaining ballots by roughly +2 percentage points margin over Sánchez to flip the result
Critical Factor: Geographic Distribution of Remaining Votes
Research explicitly states: "Late-arriving votes typically from remote rural areas favor left-leaning candidates." This is the decisive factor:
- Sánchez is the leftist candidate (endorsed by ousted Pedro Castillo)
- López Aliaga is conservative, with Lima urban base
- Remaining 8.6% are predominantly rural, remote areas
- Historical pattern works AGAINST López Aliaga in remaining count
Fraud/Legal Challenge Assessment
López Aliaga claims 100,000 votes lost in Lima due to ballot shortages. However:
- EU observers found "no sufficient grounds" for fraud allegations
- Resolution criteria: "certified results" - legitimate legal challenges could theoretically delay/alter certification
- Lima ballot shortages are documented, BUT this doesn't automatically translate to changed certified results
- Probability of successful challenge reversing 2nd/3rd place: Very low (<5%)
Market Price Analysis
Market dropped from 42¢ (7 days ago, pre-election) to 18¢ (current):
- 42¢ reflected pre-election polling showing López Aliaga as strong runoff contender
- 18¢ reflects reality of actual vote count
- 18% implies market sees ~1-in-5.5 chance of reversal
- This seems OVERPRICED given:
- Remaining votes favor opponent demographically
- 91.4% count is very mature
- EU validation undermines fraud claims
Scenario Probabilities
Base Case (85%): Sánchez holds 2nd place
- Remaining rural votes break for Sánchez as historical pattern suggests
- Final certified results confirm current 2nd/3rd ranking
- López Aliaga market resolves NO
Optimistic Case for López Aliaga (10%): Statistical noise/recount flips result
- Remaining 8.6% breaks unexpectedly even or slightly favors López Aliaga
- Margin is so narrow (0.17 pp) that random variation could flip it
- No geographic bias in remaining votes (contrary to research)
- Possible manual recount in Lima discovers uncounted ballots favoring López Aliaga
Legal/Fraud Challenge Success (5%): Certification altered
- Electoral authorities invalidate Lima votes due to irregularities
- Legal challenge succeeds in adding López Aliaga votes or removing Sánchez votes
- Certification delayed, final result differs from current count
- Very low probability given EU observer validation
My Estimate: 8%
Breaking down:
- Statistical reversal from remaining votes: ~3%
- Legal/fraud challenge success: ~3%
- Counting error correction: ~2%
Total: 8% probability López Aliaga finishes 2nd
Edge Assessment
Market: 18% | My estimate: 8% | Edge: -10 percentage points
The market appears to be overweighting:
- The narrow 0.17pp margin (raw mathematical tightness)
- Possibility of fraud claims gaining traction
The market appears to be underweighting:
- Geographic distribution of remaining votes strongly favors Sánchez
- EU observer validation reducing legal challenge probability
- Historical stability of 90%+ vote counts in Peruvian elections
Conclusion: Market is overpriced. Fair value closer to 5-10%, not 18%.
Key Factors.
Election already occurred (April 12-13, 2026) - this is results verification, not political forecasting
91.4% of ballots counted with López Aliaga in 3rd place, trailing 2nd by only 0.17 percentage points
Remaining 8.6% of votes predominantly from rural/remote areas that historically favor left-leaning candidates like Sánchez
EU election observers dismissed López Aliaga's fraud allegations as lacking sufficient grounds
López Aliaga's base (Lima urban/conservative) already mostly counted; Sánchez's base (rural/left) disproportionately in remaining votes
Market dropped from 42¢ to 18¢ over 7 days as actual results replaced pre-election polling expectations
Resolution depends on certified results, allowing small window for legal challenges or recounts to alter outcome
Scenarios.
Base Case: Sánchez Holds 2nd Place
85%Remaining 8.6% of votes break similarly to recent trends, with rural/remote ballots favoring left-leaning Sánchez over conservative López Aliaga. Final certified results confirm Sánchez in 2nd place (12.0-12.5%) and López Aliaga in 3rd (11.7-12.0%). López Aliaga's fraud allegations fail to gain traction with electoral authorities. Market resolves NO.
Trigger: Continued rural vote counting showing Sánchez maintaining or extending lead; electoral authorities announcing final count completion with no major irregularities found; López Aliaga legal challenges dismissed; official certification confirms current ranking.
Statistical Reversal: López Aliaga Edges Into 2nd
10%Against historical trends, remaining votes break unexpectedly even or slightly favor López Aliaga. The narrow 0.17pp margin allows random variation or unexpected geographic concentration of remaining votes (perhaps delayed Lima ballots) to flip the result. Final certified results show López Aliaga barely edging Sánchez for 2nd place. Market resolves YES.
Trigger: Lima-area vote count additions from ballot shortage resolution; remaining votes showing unexpectedly high López Aliaga support (contrary to rural/left pattern); final certified results showing López Aliaga at 12.0%+ and Sánchez at 11.9-12.0%; minimal legal challenges affecting outcome.
Legal Challenge Success: Certification Altered
5%López Aliaga's fraud allegations gain unexpected traction. Electoral authorities either invalidate certain votes due to Lima irregularities, order selective recounts that favor López Aliaga, or discover significant uncounted ballots from his Lima stronghold. Despite EU observer dismissal, domestic political pressure forces result revision. Final certified results differ from current count, placing López Aliaga in 2nd. Market resolves YES.
Trigger: Electoral tribunal (ONPE/JNE) announcing formal investigation into Lima irregularities; discovery of substantial uncounted Lima ballots; court-ordered recount in specific districts; political crisis forcing electoral authority concessions; final certification showing López Aliaga in 2nd place despite current 3rd-place standing.
Risks.
Extremely narrow 0.17pp margin means small counting errors or unexpected batch compositions could flip result
Lima ballot shortage irregularities could lead to legitimate discovery of uncounted votes favoring López Aliaga
Domestic political pressure might force electoral authorities to take López Aliaga fraud claims more seriously than EU observers suggest
Assumption that remaining 8.6% is purely rural/pro-Sánchez could be wrong if delayed Lima ballots are significant portion
Peruvian electoral history base rates are uncertain - lack of data on similar margins at 90%+ count stages
Legal/recount processes in Peru may be less predictable than assumed, especially given documented ballot shortages
Market may have information about remaining vote geographic distribution not captured in research
Resolution date is March 25, 2027 (nearly one year away) - prolonged legal battles could produce unexpected outcomes
Edge Assessment.
SIGNIFICANT EDGE: MARKET OVERPRICED
Market probability: 18% | Estimated true probability: 8% | Edge: -10 percentage points
The market appears to be overvaluing López Aliaga's chances by roughly 2.25x. The 18% pricing seems to weight the narrow 0.17pp margin heavily while underweighting the critical geographic distribution factor: remaining votes are predominantly from rural areas that historically favor left-leaning candidates like Sánchez, not conservative urban candidates like López Aliaga.
Why the market is wrong:
- Focused on mathematical tightness (0.17pp) without sufficient weight on demographic composition of remaining 8.6%
- Possibly overreacting to fraud allegations despite EU observer dismissal
- May not fully account for Peruvian electoral history where rural/late votes favor leftist candidates
Why I could be wrong: The margin is extraordinarily tight, and Lima ballot shortages are documented. If substantial delayed Lima ballots exist in the remaining 8.6%, the geographic assumption breaks down. Market participants may have better information about remaining vote composition.
Recommendation: At 18¢, this represents poor value for YES bettors. Fair value is closer to 5-10¢. NO position has expected value, though the narrow margin creates meaningful tail risk.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Electoral authorities announce discovery of substantial uncounted ballots from Lima (López Aliaga's urban stronghold) comprising a significant portion of the remaining 8.6%
Remaining vote counts show unexpectedly strong López Aliaga performance contrary to historical rural/left-leaning patterns, narrowing or eliminating Sánchez's lead
Electoral tribunal (ONPE/JNE) announces formal investigation or recount in Lima due to documented ballot shortages, lending credibility to fraud claims beyond EU observer assessment
Release of data showing remaining uncounted votes are NOT predominantly from rural areas but include substantial delayed urban/Lima ballots
Legal challenges gain unexpected traction with evidence of systematic irregularities that could invalidate votes or require result revision
Final count batches showing López Aliaga closing gap to within 0.05 percentage points, making statistical noise/rounding more likely to flip result
Sources.
- Official 2026 Peruvian Presidential Election Results (90% counted)
- Market Analysis: López Aliaga 2nd Place Contract Trading at 18¢
- López Aliaga Refuses to Concede, Claims Election Fraud in Lima
- Ballot Shortages Force Unprecedented Extension of Peruvian Election
- Roberto Sánchez Surges Past López Aliaga as Rural Votes Counted
Market History.
7-day range: 18¢ – 42¢.
Get This Via API.
Access real-time prediction market analysis programmatically. Every analysis on this page is available through our REST API.
curl -X POST https://api.rekko.ai/v1/markets/kalshi/TICKER/analyze \ -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY"
Related Analysis.
Fed Interest Rate Increase of 25+ bps After April 2026 Meeting
Based on analysis as of March 20, 2026, the probability of a 25+ bps Fed rate hike at the April 28-29 meeting is estimated at 1%, precisely matching the CME FedWatch market-implied probability. This represents near-universal consensus that a hike will NOT occur. The overwhelming evidence includes: (1) the March 17-18 FOMC dot plot showing zero of 12 participants projecting any rate increases in 2026, with median forecast indicating one 25 bps CUT by year-end; (2) the only dissent at the March meeting was Governor Miran voting for a CUT, not a hike; (3) Chair Powell's messaging emphasizing patience and viewing current 3.50%-3.75% rates as "sufficiently restrictive"; (4) inflation attributed to temporary supply shocks (tariffs, Middle East energy crisis) rather than demand overheating requiring tighter policy; and (5) the Fed having just completed a cutting cycle in late 2025, with historical precedent showing such pauses lead to holds or eventual cuts, not renewed tightening. Even the most hawkish mainstream analysts expect no hikes until 2027 at earliest. With only 39 days until the April meeting, there is insufficient time for the catastrophic inflation data that would be required to force a complete Fed policy reversal. The market is correctly priced with no identifiable edge.
Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?
The market assigns a 58.5% probability that a U.S. District Court will find Amazon illegally maintained a monopoly, while our analysis estimates 52%—a modest 6.5 percentage point discrepancy. The FTC's case has survived two dismissal attempts and benefits from a lengthy discovery period and favorable precedent (DOJ v. Google Search), but three factors suggest the market may be overconfident in a government victory: (1) Settlement risk is substantial—historical antitrust cases of this magnitude settle 40-60% of the time, and any settlement would resolve NO since it avoids a court monopoly finding; (2) FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson's less aggressive stance than predecessor Lina Khan may increase settlement pressure despite maintaining the case for 18+ months; (3) High evidentiary burdens at trial—surviving pleading-stage motions does not translate linearly to proving complex market definition and anticompetitive effects claims. Our scenario modeling assigns 35% probability to government trial victory, 33% to settlement (resolves NO), and 32% to Amazon trial victory. Confidence is low (0.45) due to significant information asymmetry: discovery evidence quality, settlement negotiation status, and Judge Chun's substantive views remain opaque to public markets. The 4-year timeline to 2030 resolution creates substantial intervening event risk.
Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?
The market prices FTC victory at 65%, while my analysis estimates 58% probability that Judge Chun will rule Amazon illegally maintained a monopoly. The FTC has strong procedural momentum: Judge Chun denied Amazon's motion to dismiss in September 2024 (a significant positive signal as most antitrust cases surviving this hurdle have elevated government success rates), and Amazon's $2.5 billion Prime settlement before the same judge in September 2025 suggests compelling internal discovery evidence and judicial receptiveness to government arguments about Amazon's practices. However, the market appears to overly discount critical risks. Market definition remains contested as evidenced by the March 7, 2026 economics hearing—if Amazon successfully argues the relevant market includes all retail (Walmart, Target, brick-and-mortar), its market share falls below monopoly thresholds and the case collapses regardless of conduct evidence. Historical base rates show ~50-60% government win rates in monopoly maintenance trials. While procedural strength justifies upward adjustment, the 65% market price exceeds what the evidence supports given ongoing market definition disputes, discovery still in progress through April 2026, and inherent unpredictability of bench trial outcomes. The 7-percentage-point gap represents a modest edge but meaningful mispricing.