kalshiSeptember 14, 20266d ago2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner: Tulsi Gabbard
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election?
Signal
SELL
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
80%
Summary.
My estimated true probability for Tulsi Gabbard winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is 0.001 (0.1%), which is significantly lower than the market's current price of 0.005 (0.5%). This deviation is primarily driven by her lack of major party affiliation, the overwhelming historical difficulty for any third-party candidate to win the U.S. presidency, and her currently limited national political infrastructure needed for such a monumental campaign. The market appears to be slightly overvaluing an exceptionally long-shot outcome.
Reasoning.
My estimated true probability for Tulsi Gabbard winning the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election is 0.001 (0.1%), which is significantly lower than the market's current price of 0.005 (0.5%). This deviation is primarily driven by her lack of major party affiliation, the overwhelming historical difficulty for any third-party candidate to win the U.S. presidency, and her currently limited national political infrastructure needed for such a monumental campaign. The market appears to be slightly overvaluing an exceptionally long-shot outcome.
Key Factors.
Lack of major party affiliation or strong backing from either dominant political party.
Historical precedent strongly disfavors third-party or independent candidates winning the U.S. presidency.
Limited national fundraising and campaign infrastructure compared to major party candidates.
Highly competitive political landscape likely to feature strong candidates from the two major parties.
Risks.
Significant unforeseen events (e.g., major party collapse, national crisis) could drastically alter the political landscape.
A highly improbable, massive grassroots movement or celebrity endorsement could generate unexpected momentum for an outsider candidate.
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