kalshiMay 12, 202617h agoWill SNP win above 64 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Will SNP win above 64 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
Signal
SELL
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
100%
Summary.
The 2026 Scottish Parliament election occurred on May 7, 2026—five days ago—and official results are final: the SNP won exactly 58 seats. The resolution criteria requires "above 64 seats" (≥65), meaning the bet must resolve to NO with absolute certainty. Multiple authoritative sources (SPICe, Press and Journal, Children in Scotland, Wikipedia) independently confirm the 58-seat result with no disputes, recounts, or legal challenges. This is resolved historical fact, not a forecast. The market's 0.15% YES probability is mispriced—the true probability is 0.00%. The residual market price likely reflects settlement lag (official resolution date is May 7, 2027, one year out), trapped liquidity, or platform mechanics rather than genuine uncertainty. The NO side at 99.85% implied probability represents the correct outcome, though the 0.15 percentage point edge may not be exploitable given 12-month capital lockup and platform fees.
Reasoning.
TEMPORAL GROUNDING: Analysis date is May 12, 2026. The 2026 Scottish Parliament election occurred on May 7, 2026 - FIVE DAYS AGO. This is a RESOLVED historical event, not a forecast.
Election Results (Final, Verified)
The 2026 Scottish Parliament election results are complete and official as of May 8-10, 2026:
- SNP won exactly 58 seats
- Resolution criteria requires: Above 64 seats (meaning 65 or more)
- 58 < 65: The bet MUST resolve to NO
Source Verification
Multiple independent, authoritative sources confirm identical results:
- SPICe (Scottish Parliament Information Centre) - Official parliamentary research body: 58 SNP seats
- Press and Journal - Major Scottish newspaper: 58 seats, "seven short of the 65 required"
- Children in Scotland - Confirmed May 11, 2026: 58 seats
- Wikipedia - Updated election records: 58 MSPs
All sources are post-election (May 9-11, 2026) with finalized counts. No recounts, disputes, or ambiguity exist.
Mathematical Certainty
- Seats won: 58
- Threshold: Above 64 (≥65)
- Gap: 7 seats short
- Result: 58 ≤ 64, therefore NO
This is not a probabilistic forecast - it's a binary mathematical fact. The election has occurred, votes are counted, and the SNP definitively did NOT win above 64 seats.
Market Pricing Analysis
Current market odds of 0.0015 (0.15%) for YES are actually MISPRICED - the true probability is 0.00%. The residual 0.15% likely represents:
- Trapped liquidity awaiting formal platform settlement (resolution date: May 7, 2027)
- Market friction/settlement mechanics
- Potential misunderstanding by retail participants
There is no scenario where this bet resolves to YES. The election results are immutable historical fact.
Why Not Exactly 0.00% Market Odds?
The tiny 0.15% market price likely exists because:
- The official resolution date is one year out (May 7, 2027), creating settlement lag
- Some platforms maintain non-zero prices for technical/liquidity reasons
- No realistic scenario exists for the result to change (no legal challenges, recounts reported)
Estimated probability: 0.0000 (absolute certainty of NO resolution)
Key Factors.
Election already occurred on May 7, 2026 (5 days ago) - this is resolved history, not forecast
SNP won exactly 58 seats per multiple verified official sources
Resolution threshold is 'above 64 seats' meaning 65 or more required
58 seats is 7 seats short of the 65-seat threshold - mathematically definitive NO
All authoritative sources (SPICe, Press and Journal, official records) report identical 58-seat result
No recounts, legal challenges, or disputes have been reported
First Minister John Swinney publicly acknowledged falling short of majority
Market odds of 0.15% YES represent settlement lag/friction, not genuine uncertainty
Scenarios.
Base Case: Election Results Stand (NO resolution)
100%The verified, official election results of 58 SNP seats remain unchanged. The bet resolves to NO because 58 is not above 64. This is the only realistic scenario - the election has occurred and results are final.
Trigger: Already triggered - final results confirmed May 8-10, 2026 by multiple authoritative sources including SPICe (Scottish Parliament Information Centre), major news outlets, and official records.
Extreme Edge Case: Electoral Fraud Overturning Results
0%Theoretical scenario where massive electoral fraud is discovered, results are annulled, and a re-run election produces SNP winning 65+ seats. No evidence suggests this is occurring. Included only for completeness.
Trigger: Would require: (1) Evidence of systematic fraud affecting 7+ seat outcomes, (2) Electoral Commission investigation and annulment, (3) Court-ordered re-run, (4) SNP gaining 7+ net seats in re-run. No such proceedings exist as of May 12, 2026.
Technical Edge Case: Misinterpretation of Resolution Criteria
0%Hypothetical scenario where the platform misresolves the bet due to administrative error, interpreting the results incorrectly. This would be a platform error, not a legitimate YES outcome.
Trigger: Would require platform administrators to misread clear resolution criteria ('above 64 seats') or miscount verified results (58 seats). Mathematically impossible to justify YES resolution with current data.
Risks.
Electoral fraud discovery overturning results (probability: effectively zero - no evidence exists)
Catastrophic administrative error in official vote counting (probability: effectively zero - multiple independent verifications)
Platform misresolution due to criteria misinterpretation (possible but would be correctable error)
Confusion between 'above 64' vs 'at least 64' - but 58 fails both thresholds anyway
No realistic risk exists - this is resolved historical fact, not predictive analysis
Edge Assessment.
MASSIVE EDGE: Market is mispriced at 0.15% YES probability when true probability is 0.00%.
The election occurred 5 days ago with final, verified results. The SNP won 58 seats, which is NOT above 64 seats. This bet MUST resolve to NO with absolute certainty.
The 'NO' side at 99.85% implied probability still offers value - the true probability of NO resolution is 100.00%. However, the edge is small in absolute terms (0.15 percentage points) and may not be exploitable given:
- Capital lockup until May 7, 2027 resolution date (12 months)
- Platform fees/spread
- Counterparty/platform risk over that timeframe
For the YES side: This is a certain loss. Anyone holding YES positions should exit immediately (if markets are still active) or accept total loss at resolution.
This is not a probabilistic forecast scenario - it's a mathematical fact verification. The election results are immutable historical data, and 58 ≤ 64 is definitively false for 'above 64'.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Discovery of systematic electoral fraud affecting 7+ seats with Electoral Commission annulment and court-ordered re-run producing SNP winning 65+ seats (no evidence exists; effectively impossible)
Catastrophic error in official vote counting discovered and corrected to show SNP actually won 65+ seats (multiple independent sources confirm 58; effectively impossible)
Platform administrative misresolution of clearly defined criteria (would be correctable platform error, not legitimate outcome change)
Sources.
- Children in Scotland - SNP wins fifth Scottish Parliament election in a row (May 11, 2026)
- SPICe (Scottish Parliament Information Centre) Spotlight - 2026 Scottish Parliament Election Final Results (May 9, 2026)
- The Press and Journal - SNP falls short of majority with 58 seats (May 9, 2026)
- Wikipedia - 2026 Scottish Parliament Election Results
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