kalshiSeptember 13, 20267d agoWill Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2028?
Will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2028?
Signal
SELL
Probability
18%
Confidence
MEDIUM
60%
Summary.
My estimated probability for Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin meeting together before January 1, 2028, is 0.18, which is considerably lower than the market's current price of 0.365. While a potential second Trump presidency might increase the diplomatic push for such a meeting, the intractable nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the deep distrust between the leaders, and their opposing negotiation red lines present monumental obstacles. A major, unforeseen geopolitical shift would be required for all three to agree to and attend such a high-stakes trilateral summit within the given timeframe.
Reasoning.
My estimated probability for Trump, Zelenskyy, and Putin meeting together before January 1, 2028, is 0.18, which is considerably lower than the market's current price of 0.365. While a potential second Trump presidency might increase the diplomatic push for such a meeting, the intractable nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the deep distrust between the leaders, and their opposing negotiation red lines present monumental obstacles. A major, unforeseen geopolitical shift would be required for all three to agree to and attend such a high-stakes trilateral summit within the given timeframe.
Key Factors.
Potential re-election of Donald Trump and his inclination for high-profile diplomacy.
Ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the deep distrust between Kyiv and Moscow.
Putin's international isolation and his likely reluctance for a joint meeting without significant concessions.
Zelenskyy's stated red lines regarding negotiations with Putin.
Risks.
A major, unforeseen breakthrough or conclusion to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Significant shift in global diplomatic pressure or a third-party intervention that facilitates talks.
Unexpected political changes in any of the three countries leading to new leadership or policy shifts.
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