Donald Trump out before 2027?

Step 1: Base Rate Analysis Historically, zero U.S. presidents have been involuntarily removed from office (0/46 = 0%). Nixon resigned voluntarily before certain removal. This establishes an extremely strong prior against presidential removal.

Step 2: Constitutional Barriers Assessment Two pathways exist for removal (death excluded):

• Impeachment/Conviction: Requires House majority + 2/3 Senate (67 votes). Republicans control the House and have successfully tabled impeachment resolutions (Dec 2025). Even if Democrats somehow impeached, achieving 67 Senate votes is structurally implausible given 81% Republican voter opposition.
• 25th Amendment Section 4: Requires VP Vance + Cabinet majority, then if disputed (certain), 2/3 of both chambers. Zero evidence VP Vance or Trump's Cabinet would support this. No historical precedent.

Step 3: Current Political Reality (May 7, 2026)

• Republicans control House and have protected Trump from impeachment
• VP Vance and Cabinet are Trump loyalists with no signals of defection
• While 52% of voters support impeachment, this includes only 19% of Republicans - insufficient to move GOP elected officials
• Trump showed zero resignation intent on May 4, 2026 ("staying 8-9 years")

Step 4: Recent Escalation Events April 2026 Iran threats triggered:

• Raskin's 25th Amendment Commission bill (50 co-sponsors, all Democrats)
• Larson's 13-article impeachment resolution
• 36 medical experts declaring Trump unfit

However, these are Democratic initiatives with no GOP support. The constitutional barriers remain insurmountable.

Step 5: Voluntary Resignation Probability The only realistic pathway is voluntary resignation due to:

• Severe psychological/health crisis (excluding death per resolution criteria)
• Catastrophic political event forcing resignation

Trump's personality profile and May 4 comments suggest near-zero voluntary resignation probability. Estimate: ~3-4% over 239 days.

Step 6: Involuntary Removal Tail Risk Assign ~5-6% to black swan scenarios:

• Unprecedented GOP defection triggered by extreme crisis
• Cabinet/Vance turning on Trump (highly unlikely but non-zero over 8 months)
• Major constitutional crisis forcing removal

Step 7: Market Comparison Market: 11.5% | My estimate: 9%

The market's 11.5% appears slightly high, but defensible as tail risk premium. The difference (2.5 percentage points) is within reasonable uncertainty bands given the 239-day time horizon and potential for rapid developments.

Step 8: Calibration Check Given zero historical precedent, structural barriers, and current political alignment, probabilities above 15% would be overconfident about removal. Probabilities below 5% might underweight the genuine volatility of Trump's behavior and the 8-month remaining window. 9% balances base rates against real tail risks.

SLIGHT EDGE ON 'NO' (Trump stays in office): My estimate of 9% vs market's 11.5% suggests the market is paying 2.5 percentage points too much for tail risk. However, this edge is MARGINAL and within uncertainty bounds. The market's 11.5% is defensible given the 8-month time horizon and Trump's genuine volatility demonstrated by April 2026 Iran threats.

Edge magnitude: Small (~22% overpricing: [11.5-9]/11.5 = 21.7%) Actionability: LOW - The difference could easily be explained by reasonable disagreement about tail risk probabilities over 239 days. Transaction costs and model uncertainty likely exceed edge. Recommendation: WEAK HOLD or PASS. While 'No' appears slightly underpriced at 88.5% (vs my 91%), the constitutional barriers are so strong and historical base rate so clear that taking the 'Yes' side at 11.5% is -EV. But the edge on 'No' is too small to justify strong position given tail risk uncertainty.

The market appears well-calibrated overall - pricing this as tail risk hedging rather than base case, which aligns with constitutional reality.