economics

kalshiMarch 25, 20262d ago

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office before his term ends?

Signal

SELL

Probability

Market: 23%Edge: -21pp

Confidence

HIGH

82%

Summary.

The market prices Trump's removal from office at 22.5%, implying roughly 1-in-4 odds, but my analysis estimates only ~2% probability—an 11x mispricing. While Democrats could plausibly win the House in November 2026 midterms and vote to impeach (~47% probability), the Senate conviction barrier is nearly insurmountable. The Constitution requires a 67-vote supermajority for removal, but even in an optimistic Democratic wave scenario, the party would peak at 52-53 Senate seats given the unfavorable 2026 map. This would require 15-20 Republican defections—an outcome with no modern precedent. Trump has already survived two impeachments with a maximum of 50 Senate votes against him (17 short of conviction), and no president has been removed via impeachment in 235+ years of American history. The current Republican Senate stands at 53-47, and partisan polarization makes a bipartisan supermajority extremely unlikely absent a catastrophic black swan scandal far exceeding Ukraine or January 6th. The market appears to conflate "impeachment probability" with "removal probability," failing to account for the constitutional math that makes Senate conviction the critical bottleneck. This represents strong value on the NO side.

Reasoning.

Step-by-step probability assessment:

1. Constitutional Requirements Analysis: The resolution requires BOTH impeachment (House simple majority) AND conviction/removal (Senate 67-vote supermajority). This is a conjunctive probability problem where both chambers must act.

2. Current State (March 2026):

House: Republicans 218-214, blocking impeachment under current control
Senate: Republicans 53-47, requiring 20 Republican defections to reach 67 votes
Democratic Reps. have introduced articles, but no viability under GOP House control

3. House Impeachment Probability (Post-November 2026):

2026 midterms rated "highly competitive" for House control
Historical midterm pattern favors opposition party
Speaker Johnson's warnings suggest Democrats would pursue impeachment if they win
Estimated probability Democrats win House: ~55%
Conditional probability of impeachment given Democratic House: ~85%
Combined House impeachment probability: 0.55 × 0.85 ≈ 47%

4. Senate Conviction Probability (The Critical Bottleneck): This is where the market is fundamentally mispricing the bet.

Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D (need 67 for conviction)
2026 Senate map is "highly unfavorable for Democrats" - defending vulnerable Trump-won states
Research projects Democrats would peak at "low 50s" even in a wave scenario (say 52-53 seats max)
Would still require 15-20 Republican defections to reach 67 votes

Historical Context:

Trump impeached twice, acquitted twice
Highest Senate vote against Trump: 50 votes (well short of 67)
No president ever removed via impeachment in 235+ years (0/4 trials)
Modern partisan polarization makes bipartisan supermajority extremely unlikely

Republican Defection Analysis: For 15-20 Republicans to vote for conviction would require:

A scandal far exceeding Ukraine/Jan 6 severity
Complete collapse of Trump's GOP support base
Willingness to face primary challenges and end political careers
Sustained crisis over months (not just news cycle)

Even in extreme scenarios (major scandal, economic crisis), achieving 67 votes is mathematically implausible given:

2026 Senate map favors Republicans
Trump's demonstrated grip on Republican base
Primary threat to any Republican voting for conviction

5. Joint Probability Calculation: P(Removal) = P(House impeaches) × P(Senate convicts | House impeaches)

P(House impeaches) ≈ 0.47
P(Senate convicts | impeachment) ≈ 0.04 (accounting for tail-risk catastrophic scandal)
P(Removal) ≈ 0.47 × 0.04 ≈ 0.019 ≈ 2%

6. Black Swan Adjustment: Adding small probability mass for unforeseen catastrophic events (major war crimes, economic collapse, health crisis, intra-party coup) that could catalyze mass Republican defection: +0.005

Final Estimate: 2.0%

Market Mispricing Analysis: Market odds of 22.5% appear to conflate "probability of impeachment" with "probability of removal." The market may be:

Overweighting the plausible House impeachment scenario (post-2026)
Severely underweighting the Senate conviction barrier
Failing to fully account for the 67-vote supermajority requirement
Anchoring on "impeachment drama" rather than constitutional math

The 22.5% market price implies ~1-in-4 odds, which would require either:

~20% chance of 15-20 Republican senators defecting (implausibly high), or
Misunderstanding that impeachment alone doesn't satisfy resolution criteria

Edge Assessment: Strong value on NO at 77.5% My estimate of 2% vs market's 22.5% represents a >10x mispricing, suggesting significant betting edge on the NO side.

Key Factors.

Senate supermajority requirement (67 votes) creates nearly insurmountable structural barrier - would need 15-20 Republican defections even in Democratic wave scenario
2026 Senate map highly unfavorable for Democrats, defending vulnerable Trump-won states while Republicans hold safe seats - limits Democratic Senate gains to low 50s maximum
Historical precedent: 0/4 presidential impeachment trials resulted in conviction across 235+ years; Trump already acquitted twice with highest vote reaching only 50 senators
November 2026 House midterms rated competitive with Democratic flip possible (~55% probability), which would enable impeachment but not removal
Modern partisan polarization makes bipartisan 67-vote supermajority extremely unlikely absent catastrophic scandal beyond anything seen in Trump's previous impeachments
Republican senators voting for conviction would face primary challenges and career-ending backlash from Trump's GOP base, creating strong disincentive for defection
Market appears to misprice by conflating House impeachment probability (~47%) with full removal probability, ignoring Senate conviction bottleneck

Scenarios.

Base Case: Impeachment Without Conviction

45%

Democrats win House in November 2026 midterms and vote to impeach Trump in 2027 on corruption/policy grounds. Senate remains Republican-controlled or narrowly Democratic (50-53 seats). Senate vote fails to reach 67-vote threshold, with fewer than 10 Republicans voting to convict. Trump remains in office and completes his term.

Trigger: Democratic House majority after November 2026 elections; introduction of impeachment articles in early 2027; House impeachment vote passes on party-line basis; Senate trial held but conviction vote falls short (likely 52-58 votes maximum, well below 67 needed).

Bear Case: No Impeachment Proceedings

53%

Republicans retain narrow House majority in 2026 midterms, blocking any impeachment attempts. Trump completes his term without formal impeachment proceedings, or Democrats win House but strategically decline impeachment due to futility given Senate math and political backlash concerns. Resolution clearly resolves NO.

Trigger: Republicans hold House after November 2026; no impeachment articles advance to floor vote; or Democratic leadership (Hakeem Jeffries) decides against impeachment push citing lack of Senate conviction path and voter priorities on economy/healthcare.

Bull Case: Catastrophic Scandal with Bipartisan Conviction

Major unforeseen crisis emerges: severe war crimes, constitutional crisis, evidence of foreign adversary control, economic collapse directly attributable to Trump, or mass-casualty domestic event linked to presidential actions. Republican senators face overwhelming constituent pressure and 15-20 defect to vote for conviction. Senate reaches 67+ votes for removal.

Trigger: Revelation of extreme misconduct (far exceeding past scandals); polling shows 70%+ public support for removal including majority of Republicans; Republican senators from purple/blue states publicly commit to conviction; McConnell/other GOP leaders signal willingness to convict; actual Senate vote reaches 67+ threshold.

Risks.

Catastrophic black swan event (major war crimes, constitutional crisis, economic collapse) that fundamentally shifts Republican senator calculus - low probability but non-zero
Underestimating potential for intra-Republican Party revolt if Trump's approval collapses below 30% and becomes electoral liability for 2028
Unforeseen health crisis or cognitive decline that creates bipartisan consensus for removal via 25th Amendment (though this doesn't satisfy impeachment resolution criteria)
Major scandal involving foreign adversary control or national security breach that crosses partisan lines and creates existential threat perception
Analysis relies on current partisan dynamics holding through 2029 - potential regime change in political norms could alter senator behavior
Senate map projections could be wrong if Democratic wave significantly exceeds historical midterm patterns, though still wouldn't reach 67 votes
Overconfidence in historical precedent with small sample size (only 4 presidential impeachment trials ever) - statistical base rates less reliable
Temporal risk: 33.9 months remaining provides multiple windows for crisis events, though also requires sustained political will
Research data current as of March 25, 2026 - any major events in past weeks may not be fully reflected in analysis

Edge Assessment.

STRONG EDGE ON NO (betting against removal):

Market probability: 22.5% YES / 77.5% NO My estimated probability: 2.0% YES / 98.0% NO

Mispricing magnitude: Market overvalues YES by ~11x (22.5% vs 2.0%)

The market appears to be making a fundamental error by conflating "probability of impeachment" with "probability of removal." While House impeachment is plausible if Democrats win in November 2026 (~47% probability), the Senate conviction barrier is nearly insurmountable:

Requires 67 votes (two-thirds supermajority)
Current 53-47 Republican Senate
2026 map projects Democrats peaking at 50-53 seats maximum
Would need 15-20 Republican defections with no precedent for such bipartisan action in modern era
Trump survived two previous impeachments with highest vote of 50 (17 votes short)

Betting recommendation: Significant value on NO at implied 77.5% (true probability ~98%). The 22.5% YES price appears driven by:

Overweighting likely House impeachment drama
Underweighting Senate mathematical impossibility
Recency bias from impeachment discussions in news
Insufficient analysis of constitutional supermajority requirement

Kelly Criterion sizing: With true probability ~2% vs market 22.5%, this represents rare market inefficiency. However, recommend moderate position sizing due to:

Black swan risk (catastrophic unforeseen scandal)
Long time horizon (33.9 months for surprise events)
Liquidity concerns on prediction markets
Small possibility of fundamental misunderstanding of resolution criteria

Expected value: At 77.5% NO odds, betting $100 returns $129 if correct. With 98% probability, EV = 0.98 × $129 - 0.02 × $100 = +$124.42, representing strong positive expectation of +24.4% return.

What Would Change Our Mind.

Catastrophic scandal emerges (major war crimes, evidence of foreign adversary control, or constitutional crisis) that causes Trump's approval to collapse below 25% among Republicans and creates bipartisan consensus for removal
Polling shows 15+ Republican senators from purple/blue states publicly commit to voting for conviction, or Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell signals openness to conviction
2026 midterm results show historic Democratic wave that defies projections, flipping Senate to 60+ Democratic seats (effectively impossible given map, but would change calculus)
Major economic collapse or national security crisis directly attributable to Trump's actions that shifts Republican senator incentives from primary fear to electoral survival concerns
Unexpected evidence emerges showing higher base rate of Republican defection on impeachment votes than historical record suggests
Supreme Court ruling or constitutional crisis that lowers the conviction threshold below 67 votes (constitutionally implausible but would be game-changing)
Trump's health deteriorates or cognitive decline becomes so severe that Republican senators view removal as necessary for party's 2028 prospects

Sources.

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