economics

kalshiMarch 26, 20261d ago

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office before his term ends?

Signal

SELL

Probability

Market: 23%Edge: -20pp

Confidence

MEDIUM

78%

Summary.

The market prices Trump's impeachment and removal at 22.5%, but our analysis estimates the true probability at approximately 3%—suggesting the market is significantly overvalued. While House impeachment is plausible if Democrats win the 2026 midterms (~40-45% probability), the constitutional requirement of 67 Senate votes creates an almost insurmountable barrier. Currently, Republicans control the Senate 53-47, and the 2026 midterm map structurally favors Republicans, making it mathematically impossible for Democrats to organically reach 67 seats. Removal would require 15-20 GOP senators to defect and vote for conviction. Recent evidence strongly suggests this is extremely unlikely: the March 18, 2026 war powers vote showed 52 of 53 Republican senators backing Trump on controversial Iran military operations, demonstrating robust party discipline. Historically, no U.S. president has ever been removed via Senate conviction in 235+ years. The market appears to conflate "impeachment" (House-only action requiring simple majority) with "impeachment AND removal" (requiring both House impeachment and Senate conviction with two-thirds supermajority), while underweighting the near-impossibility of achieving 67 Senate votes absent a truly catastrophic, unprecedented scandal.

Reasoning.

Step 1: Constitutional Requirements Impeachment and removal requires two steps:

House impeachment: Simple majority (218+ votes)
Senate conviction: Two-thirds supermajority (67 votes)

Both are required for "impeachment AND removal" to occur.

Step 2: Current Political Landscape (March 26, 2026)

House: Republicans control 218-214 (razor-thin majority)
Senate: Republicans control 53-47
Recent impeachment attempts (April 2025, December 2025) failed in Republican-controlled House
March 18, 2026 war powers vote showed strict GOP party discipline (53-47, only Rand Paul dissenting)

Step 3: House Impeachment Probability Assessment Two pathways:

Current Republican House impeaches (very unlikely): Recent H.Res. 939 was tabled 237-140. GOP shows no appetite. Probability: ~2%
Democratic House after Nov 2026 midterms impeaches (plausible): Speaker Johnson warned this would happen immediately. Democrats would need to flip net 4+ seats. Generic ballot environment + Iran war unpopularity could enable this. Probability of Dem House takeover: ~40-50%. If Dems win House, impeachment probability: ~90%.

Combined House impeachment probability: ~38-45%

Step 4: Senate Conviction - The Critical Bottleneck Current Senate: 53 R, 47 D Conviction requires: 67 votes Republican defections needed: 15-20 senators (depending on 2026 outcome)

2026 Senate midterm map analysis:

35 seats contested: 13 D defending, 22 R defending
Heavily favors Republicans structurally
Even in strong Democratic wave: Dems capped at ~52-54 seats maximum
Democrats cannot organically reach 67 seats - mathematically impossible

For conviction to occur, 15-20 GOP senators must vote to remove Trump

Historical context:

Trump survived two previous impeachment trials (first term)
No president in 235+ years of U.S. history has been removed via Senate conviction
Base rate: 0%

Recent evidence of GOP unity:

War powers vote (March 18, 2026): 52 of 53 GOP senators backed Trump on Iran conflict despite constitutional questions
Only Rand Paul dissented
This occurred during active military controversy - prime impeachment fuel

Step 5: Scenario Probabilities For removal to occur, we need BOTH:

House impeachment (38-45% probable)
Senate conviction requiring mass GOP defection (need to estimate)

What could cause 15-20 GOP senators to convict?

Catastrophic scandal (financial crimes, clear treason, smoking gun evidence)
Economic collapse blamed on Trump
Iran war disaster with massive U.S. casualties
Criminal conviction in parallel legal proceedings

Even under extraordinary circumstances, GOP has shown extreme loyalty. March 2026 war powers vote demonstrates this. Estimating probability of sufficient GOP defection: ~5-8%

Combined probability: 0.42 × 0.07 ≈ 0.03 (3%)

Step 6: Market Comparison Market: 22.5% My estimate: 3%

The market appears to significantly overestimate this probability. The market seems to be:

Overweighting the probability of House impeachment post-2026 midterms
Dramatically underweighting the near-impossibility of achieving 67 Senate votes
Possibly confusing "impeachment" (House action alone) with "impeachment AND removal" (requires both chambers)

The 22.5% market price implies the market believes there's a realistic path to 67 Senate votes, but the structural math and recent voting patterns show this is extremely unlikely absent a truly unprecedented scandal.

Step 7: Key Risks to This Analysis

Unknown unknowns: Major scandal not yet public could emerge
Iran conflict escalation could dramatically shift political winds
Economic crisis could crater Trump support
2026 midterms could produce unexpected results
GOP senators may be more willing to convict in second term (no re-election concerns for Trump)
Third impeachment attempt could involve more serious charges with stronger evidence

Key Factors.

Constitutional requirement of 67 Senate votes creates nearly insurmountable barrier - requires 15-20 GOP defections
2026 Senate midterm map structurally favors Republicans, making Democratic organic path to 67 votes mathematically impossible
Recent war powers vote (March 18, 2026) demonstrated strong GOP party discipline: 52 of 53 Republican senators backed Trump
Historical base rate is 0%: No U.S. president has ever been removed via Senate conviction in 235+ years
House impeachment is plausible if Democrats win 2026 midterms (~40-50% chance), but this is only first step
Trump has already survived two Senate impeachment trials and two failed impeachment attempts in second term
2 years 10 months remaining until resolution creates time for major scandal, but also time for political dynamics to normalize
Market appears to conflate 'impeachment' (House-only action) with 'impeachment AND removal' (requires both chambers)

Scenarios.

Base Case: Impeachment Attempt Fails in Senate

90%

Democrats win House in November 2026 midterms and impeach Trump in 2027 over Iran war powers, DOGE, or other controversies. Senate Republicans maintain strong party discipline. Conviction vote fails with <60 votes (similar to first-term impeachments). Trump serves full term through January 20, 2029.

Trigger: Democrats flip House in 2026 (4+ net seats gained). House passes articles of impeachment along party lines in 2027. Senate trial occurs but fewer than 10 GOP senators vote to convict, falling far short of 67-vote threshold. War powers vote pattern (52-47 GOP unity) holds.

Status Quo: No Impeachment Vote Occurs

Republicans maintain House control through 2026 midterms, blocking any impeachment attempts. Or Democrats win House but political calculus shifts away from impeachment due to concerns about Senate futility and 2028 electoral backlash. Trump completes term without formal impeachment vote.

Trigger: GOP holds House in 2026 midterms despite challenging environment. Or Democratic House leadership (Hakeem Jeffries) decides impeachment is politically counterproductive and focuses on investigations and 2028 presidential race instead. Iran conflict ends favorably for U.S., removing key impeachment rationale.

Tail Risk: Catastrophic Scandal Leads to Removal

Major scandal emerges between March 2026 and early 2029 that fundamentally breaks Republican support for Trump. Possibilities: clear evidence of personal financial corruption involving foreign powers; Iran war disaster with thousands of U.S. casualties and evidence of reckless decision-making; criminal conviction in parallel federal or state case that creates political imperative for removal; or constitutional crisis involving refusal to follow court orders. 15-20 GOP senators vote to convict.

Trigger: Smoking-gun evidence of high crimes emerges (financial records, recordings, whistleblower testimony). Trump approval rating crashes below 30% overall and below 50% among Republicans. Mitch McConnell and senior GOP senators publicly signal openness to conviction. Corporate donors and Republican establishment turn against Trump. Senate conviction vote reaches 67+ with bipartisan supermajority.

Risks.

Major unforeseen scandal could emerge that fundamentally shifts GOP calculus (financial crimes, treason evidence, personal misconduct)
Iran conflict (Operation Epic Fury) could escalate catastrophically with massive U.S. casualties, breaking Republican support
Economic crisis or recession blamed on Trump policies could crater his approval among Republican base
Criminal conviction in parallel legal proceedings could create political imperative for Senate conviction
Underestimating willingness of second-term GOP senators to convict (Trump cannot run again, reducing political cost)
2026 midterm outcomes highly uncertain - polling error or major events could produce unexpected Democratic wave
Analysis assumes GOP unity holds, but individual senators facing 2028/2030 re-election in swing states may calculate differently
Constitutional crisis (refusing court orders, extreme executive overreach) could force Republican hand
Market may have information about ongoing investigations or scandals not yet public
Overconfidence in base rate analysis - unprecedented events by definition have 0% base rate until they happen

Edge Assessment.

STRONG EDGE: Market significantly overpriced at 22.5%

The market is pricing this at 22.5% when the true probability appears to be approximately 3%, suggesting a 19.5 percentage point overvaluation. This represents a substantial edge opportunity.

Why the market is likely wrong:

Mathematical impossibility conflation: The market seems to confuse the probability of House impeachment (which is plausible at ~40-45% if Dems win in 2026) with the probability of full removal. The question explicitly requires BOTH impeachment AND Senate conviction.
67-vote threshold underappreciated: Even if Democrats have their best possible 2026 Senate outcome (~52-54 seats), they would still need 13-15 Republican senators to defect. The recent war powers vote showed only 1 of 53 GOP senators willing to cross Trump on a major military controversy.
Base rate neglect: 0% historical success rate for presidential removal via conviction is a powerful prior that the market is insufficiently weighting.
Recent evidence ignored: Two failed impeachment attempts in the past year (April 2025, December 2025) and the March 18, 2026 war powers vote provide concrete evidence of GOP resistance.

Recommended position: The NO side (Trump NOT removed) appears substantially underpriced at 77-78% when it should be closer to 97%. This is a high-conviction bet on NO, with the caveat that tail risk of unprecedented scandal exists.

Caveats: The 3% tail risk is real - catastrophic scandals do occur, and 2.8 years is substantial time. If betting significant capital, the tail risk of ruin should be considered. However, the odds suggest meaningful expected value on the NO side.

What Would Change Our Mind.

Emergence of smoking-gun evidence of serious crimes (financial corruption involving foreign powers, treason, or criminal conspiracy) that fundamentally breaks Republican support
Iran conflict escalation resulting in thousands of U.S. military casualties combined with evidence Trump ignored intelligence warnings or acted recklessly
Trump criminal conviction in parallel federal or state proceedings that creates overwhelming political pressure for Senate removal
Multiple senior Republican senators (McConnell, Thune, Cornyn, etc.) publicly signaling openness to conviction or breaking with Trump on major votes
Trump approval rating falling below 30% overall and below 50% among Republican voters in reliable polling
Constitutional crisis involving Trump's refusal to comply with Supreme Court orders or attempts to unlawfully extend presidential powers
Unexpected Democratic landslide in 2026 midterms combined with immediate shift in GOP Senate caucus rhetoric about accountability
Economic collapse or severe recession with clear attribution to Trump policies that craters his support among Republican base

Sources.

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