polymarketMarch 31, 20261d agoWill Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Will Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Signal
NO TRADE
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
100%
Summary.
This market should resolve to NO immediately with absolute certainty. As of today (March 31, 2026), the Lyon municipal election has already occurred and concluded: the first round was held on March 15, 2026 (16 days ago) and the second round on March 22, 2026 (9 days ago). Official results from the French Ministry of the Interior confirm that Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert received only 3.64% of the vote (7,426 votes) in the first round, was eliminated, and never advanced to the second round. Grégory Doucet won re-election as Mayor of Lyon. Perrin-Gilbert herself publicly acknowledged defeat on March 21, 2026. The true probability is 0.0% - this is not a prediction but a historical fact. The market's current price of 0.05% correctly reflects this reality, with the tiny residual likely due to administrative settlement delays (possibly related to a date error in the resolution criteria stating "May 15-22" instead of the actual "March 15-22") or market microstructure friction. There is zero uncertainty: Perrin-Gilbert definitively lost this election.
Reasoning.
This is a completely resolved event with zero ambiguity. The analysis is straightforward:
TEMPORAL GROUNDING (Today: March 31, 2026): The Lyon municipal election has ALREADY OCCURRED. The first round was held March 15, 2026 (16 days ago), and the second round was held March 22, 2026 (9 days ago).
OFFICIAL RESULTS:
- Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert received only 3.64% of the vote (7,426 votes) in the first round
- She was eliminated after the first round, failing to advance to the second round
- Grégory Doucet won re-election as Mayor of Lyon in the second round
- Results are officially confirmed by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.intérieur.gouv.fr)
- Perrin-Gilbert herself publicly acknowledged defeat on March 21, 2026 in a Lyon Capitale interview
CRITICAL OBSERVATION: The bet resolution criteria contains a factual error - it states the election dates as "May 15 and May 22, 2026" when the actual dates were March 15 and March 22, 2026. This appears to be a translation error confusing French "mars" (March) with "mai" (May).
RESOLUTION ASSESSMENT: The bet asks "Will Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?" The answer is definitively NO - she lost, receiving only 3.64% and being eliminated in the first round. The election is over, the results are official, and another candidate (Doucet) has already won.
The market price of 0.0005 (0.05%) correctly reflects this reality - the outcome is known with absolute certainty. The tiny residual price likely reflects either market friction, minimum tick sizes, or traders waiting for formal administrative resolution of the bet.
TRUE PROBABILITY: The probability that Perrin-Gilbert won this election is 0.0%. This is not a prediction - it is a historical fact. She definitively lost.
Key Factors.
Election already concluded on March 15 and 22, 2026 (16 and 9 days ago respectively)
Official government results show Perrin-Gilbert received only 3.64% in first round
Perrin-Gilbert was eliminated after first round, never advanced to second round
Grégory Doucet officially won re-election as Mayor of Lyon in second round
Results confirmed by French Ministry of the Interior (élections.intérieur.gouv.fr)
Perrin-Gilbert publicly acknowledged defeat on March 21, 2026
This is a historical fact, not a prediction - outcome is known with 100% certainty
Scenarios.
Base Case: Election Already Occurred - Perrin-Gilbert Lost
100%The Lyon municipal election concluded on March 22, 2026. Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert was eliminated in the first round with only 3.64% of the vote. Grégory Doucet won re-election. Official results are confirmed by the French Ministry of the Interior. This bet should resolve to NO.
Trigger: This scenario has already occurred. Evidence: Official government results showing Perrin-Gilbert received 7,426 votes (3.64%) on March 15, 2026, was eliminated, and Doucet won the second round on March 22, 2026. Perrin-Gilbert acknowledged defeat publicly on March 21, 2026.
Alternative Scenario: Bet Resolution Delayed Due to Date Error
0%The bet description incorrectly states election dates as May 15-22 instead of actual dates March 15-22. This administrative error might delay formal resolution, but does not change the factual outcome that Perrin-Gilbert lost the election that already occurred in March.
Trigger: The bet administrator may wait until the incorrectly-stated May dates pass before resolving, or may need to issue a correction. However, this is purely administrative - the substantive question has been definitively answered: Perrin-Gilbert did not win.
Impossible Scenario: Perrin-Gilbert Somehow Wins
0%There is no plausible scenario where Perrin-Gilbert wins this election. The election has concluded, results are official and certified by government authorities, the winner has been declared, and Perrin-Gilbert herself has acknowledged defeat. Time cannot be reversed.
Trigger: No evidence could trigger this scenario - it would require the election to not have happened yet, which contradicts multiple official government sources and 16+ days of elapsed time since the first round.
Risks.
Administrative delay: Bet may not resolve immediately due to date error in resolution criteria (states May instead of March)
Market friction: Tiny residual probability (0.05%) may persist due to minimum tick sizes or settlement logistics rather than actual uncertainty
Interpretation dispute: Extremely unlikely, but bet administrator could theoretically claim the 'May 15-22' dates are definitional and since no election occurred on those dates, bet resolves differently than expected
Data error: Vanishingly unlikely that official French government election results are completely fabricated or erroneous across multiple independent sources
Edge Assessment.
NO EDGE AVAILABLE - This is a resolved historical event, not a prediction opportunity. The market price of 0.0005 (0.05%) correctly reflects that the outcome is known with certainty: Perrin-Gilbert definitively lost the election that concluded 9 days ago. The true probability is 0.0%. The tiny residual market price (0.05%) likely reflects administrative settlement delays or market microstructure, not genuine uncertainty. There is no information asymmetry to exploit - the official government results are publicly available. This bet should simply resolve to NO based on factual historical record. Any trader holding YES positions should exit immediately, and NO positions are essentially a risk-free administrative wait for formal resolution.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Discovery that official French Ministry of the Interior results are fraudulent or fabricated across multiple independent sources (essentially impossible)
Evidence that the election reported as occurring on March 15-22, 2026 did not actually take place and all news coverage, official records, and candidate statements are coordinated disinformation (essentially impossible)
Bet administrator ruling that only an election held specifically on the incorrectly-stated dates of May 15-22, 2026 would count for resolution purposes, making the actual March election irrelevant (extremely unlikely administrative interpretation)
Time travel or retroactive alteration of historical events (impossible)
Sources.
Market History.
7-day range: 0¢ – 0¢.
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