US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026

Step-by-step analysis:

1. Critical Timing Issue: The resolution date is February 22, 2026, and the research was retrieved on February 22, 2026 at 12:00 PM. This means we're analyzing the probability of a strike occurring within approximately 12 hours. This dramatically changes the analysis compared to a longer timeframe.

2. Eurasia Group Baseline: Eurasia Group estimates 65% probability by end of April 2026 - a much longer timeframe than the bet deadline. For strikes to occur within hours rather than months, we'd need imminent trigger events.

3. Escalation Indicators Present:

   • Major military buildup (carrier strike groups deployed since January)
   • Trump deadline reportedly active and imminent
   • Advanced military planning including leadership targeting options
   • Iran at 90% uranium enrichment, <1 week from bomb-grade material
   • Recent precedent (June 2025 strikes)

4. De-escalation Factors:

   • Iran expressing willingness for confidence-building measures
   • Active regional mediation efforts
   • No reports of imminent deadline expiring today specifically
   • Negotiations described as "stalled" but ongoing, not collapsed
   • International opposition to military action

5. Time Constraint Adjustment: Within 12 hours, a strike would require:

   • An immediate deadline expiring today
   • Intelligence of imminent Iranian nuclear breakout
   • Pre-positioned assets ready to execute (present but not definitive)
   • Presidential authorization already given or imminent

6. Information Gaps: No sources indicate a specific deadline expiring on February 22, 2026. The Trump deadline is described as active but without a specific date mentioned. If there were hours remaining before a publicized ultimatum, we'd expect more urgent reporting.

7. Probability Calibration:

   • Eurasia's 65% over ~2 months implies roughly 1% daily probability if evenly distributed (though crises are lumpy)
   • Given heightened tensions, perhaps 2-5% daily probability on high-risk days
   • No specific catalyst identified for today versus other days
   • Assign ~35% given extreme tensions but lack of today-specific triggers

8. Base Rate Context: The US has struck Iranian targets twice in recent years (2020 Soleimani, June 2025 facilities), but specific-day predictions are inherently difficult. The 12-hour window dramatically reduces probability versus longer timeframes.

No market odds available for comparison.

With no current market odds provided, I cannot assess edge. However, my 35% estimate represents a significant markdown from Eurasia Group's 65% probability, primarily due to the extreme time compression (12 hours vs. ~2 months).

Key analytical points:

• If markets existed and were pricing this >50%, I would see value on NO given lack of today-specific catalysts
• If markets were pricing this <20%, I would see value on YES given extreme underlying tensions and military readiness
• The 35% estimate reflects high uncertainty (45% confidence) due to potential for non-public information about deadlines or decisions

Information asymmetry risk: In crisis situations, classified intelligence and presidential decisions may not be reflected in public reporting. If Trump has already authorized strikes with execution planned for today, public sources would likely not reveal this until after the fact. This creates significant risk of underestimating probability based solely on open-source intelligence.

Recommendation: Without market odds, cannot identify specific edge. The situation is genuinely uncertain with 35% strike probability reasonable given available information, but confidence is low due to 12-hour window and potential for non-public developments.