kalshiMay 28, 202630d agoSpencer Pratt 35%+ in 2026 LA Mayoral Election (1st Round)
Will Spencer Pratt receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Signal
SELL
Probability
1%
Confidence
MEDIUM
70%
Summary.
I estimate a 1% chance of Spencer Pratt receiving 35% of the vote, far below the market price of 18.5%. His celebrity status might generate some votes, but it's highly unlikely he'll reach the 35% threshold given the many other serious candidates that will run.
Reasoning.
I estimate a 1% chance of Spencer Pratt receiving 35% of the vote, far below the market price of 18.5%. His celebrity status might generate some votes, but it's highly unlikely he'll reach the 35% threshold given the many other serious candidates that will run.
Key Factors.
Celebrity candidate
Low current polling data
Long time until election
Risks.
Unpredictability of celebrity endorsements
Unexpected shift in voter sentiment
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