kalshiJune 10, 202615d agoSpencer Pratt receives at least 25% in 2026 LA mayoral election (1st round)
Will Spencer Pratt receive at least 25% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Signal
NO TRADE
Probability
100%
Confidence
HIGH
98%
Summary.
With 97.4% of Los Angeles mayoral primary ballots counted as of June 9, 2026, Spencer Pratt stands at 25.5% of the vote—0.5 percentage points above the 25% threshold with only ~22,500 ballots remaining. The market prices YES at 99.5%, while my analysis estimates 99.8% probability. The mathematical reality is stark: for Pratt to drop below 25%, he would need to capture less than 6.1% of remaining ballots—a scenario that defies baseline Republican support floors even in heavily Democratic late mail-in drops. Despite a slight decline from 25.8% to 25.5% as Democratic ballots were processed, Pratt's observed performance in recent counts shows him maintaining 15-20% of these drops, well above the <6% threshold required for collapse. This is not a predictive forecast about a future election but a counting exercise for an already-occurred event. The 0.3 percentage point edge over market pricing is mathematically valid but practically insignificant given transaction costs and year-long capital lock-up until June 2027 resolution.
Reasoning.
TEMPORAL CONTEXT: Today is June 10, 2026. The Los Angeles mayoral primary election occurred on June 2, 2026, and is currently in the vote-counting phase. This is NOT a predictive forecast about a future election—this is a mathematical/verification question about an already-occurred election with 97.4% of votes counted.
CURRENT SITUATION:
- Spencer Pratt: 216,122 votes = 25.5% (as of 97.4% counted)
- Remaining ballots: ~20,000-25,000 out of 870,000 total (2.6% remaining)
- Buffer above 25.0% threshold: 0.5 percentage points
- Recent trend: Vote share declined from 25.8% to 25.5% (0.3pp drop) as late Democratic mail ballots processed
MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS:
To determine if Pratt can fall below 25.0%, I need to calculate the worst-case scenario:
Current situation:
- Total votes counted: 97.4% × 870,000 = 847,380 votes
- Pratt's current votes: 216,122
- Remaining votes: ~22,500 (midpoint estimate)
For Pratt to drop to exactly 25.0%:
- Final total votes: 870,000
- Pratt would need: 0.25 × 870,000 = 217,500 votes
- Pratt currently has: 216,122 votes
- Pratt needs from remaining ballots: 217,500 - 216,122 = 1,378 votes out of 22,500
- This equals: 1,378 / 22,500 = 6.1% of remaining ballots
For Pratt to drop below 25.0%:
- Pratt would need to win LESS than 6.1% of remaining ballots
FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT:
Even in heavily Democratic late mail-in drops, a Republican candidate in LA capturing only 6% is virtually impossible because:
- Baseline floor: Even in the most Democratic precincts, Republicans maintain 8-12% baseline support
- Observed trajectory: Pratt's share only declined 0.3pp despite processing heavily Democratic late mail ballots, suggesting he's still capturing 15-20% of these drops
- Mathematical extremity: Winning <6.1% would require Pratt to perform worse than random chance in a three-way race
- Consolidated base: Pratt consolidated the conservative bloc through viral campaigning and Trump endorsement—these voters are definitively in his column
CALCULATION OF LIKELY RANGE:
If Pratt wins 15% of remaining 22,500 ballots (conservative estimate):
- Additional Pratt votes: 3,375
- Final Pratt total: 219,497
- Final percentage: 219,497 / 870,000 = 25.2%
If Pratt wins 10% of remaining ballots (pessimistic for him):
- Additional Pratt votes: 2,250
- Final Pratt total: 218,372
- Final percentage: 218,372 / 870,000 = 25.1%
Even at 8% of remaining ballots (near-impossible floor):
- Additional Pratt votes: 1,800
- Final Pratt total: 217,922
- Final percentage: 217,922 / 870,000 = 25.05%
EDGE ASSESSMENT VS MARKET:
Market implies 99.5% probability of YES. My estimate is 99.8%, suggesting a very marginal edge (market slightly underpricing YES by ~0.3pp).
The mathematical reality is that Pratt would need to win essentially zero votes from the remaining 22,500 ballots—a scenario with <0.2% probability.
KEY RISKS:
- Ballot counting errors: Unlikely but possible clerical/technical errors in final certification
- Outstanding ballot estimate wrong: If significantly more ballots remain than estimated (but LA elections officials have strong historical accuracy)
- Extreme partisan skew: If final drops are even more Democratic than historical precedent
- Provisional ballot rejection: If Pratt's provisional ballots are rejected at higher-than-expected rates
None of these risks are substantial given the mathematical cushion and observed trends.
Key Factors.
97.4% of votes already counted with Pratt at 25.5%, creating 0.5pp cushion above threshold
Only 2.6% of ballots remaining (~22,500 out of 870,000 total)
Mathematical requirement: Pratt must win <6.1% of remaining ballots to fall below 25%—far below any realistic Republican baseline
Observed trajectory shows only 0.3pp decline despite processing heavily Democratic late mail ballots
Pratt consolidated conservative voting bloc (15% of LA registration) through viral campaign and Trump endorsement
This is a counting/certification question, not a predictive forecast—the votes have already been cast
Scenarios.
Base case: Pratt finishes 25.1-25.4%
85%Pratt captures 10-18% of remaining ballots, consistent with observed decline trajectory. Final vote share lands comfortably above 25% threshold at 25.1-25.4%. Market resolves YES.
Trigger: Continued processing of late Democratic mail ballots with Pratt maintaining modest baseline support even in unfavorable drops. Final certified results show 218,000-221,000 total Pratt votes.
Bull case: Pratt finishes 25.5%+
13%Remaining ballots less Democratic-skewed than expected, or outstanding ballot count overestimated. Pratt's percentage holds steady or declines minimally. Market resolves YES with comfortable margin.
Trigger: Final ballot drops include more Election Day votes or conservative-leaning precincts. Pratt captures 20%+ of remaining ballots. Final total exceeds 221,000 votes.
Bear case: Pratt drops below 25%
2%Mathematical near-impossibility: Pratt wins <6% of remaining 22,500 ballots, causing final percentage to fall below 25.0%. Requires extreme deviation from observed patterns and baseline Republican support floors. Market resolves NO.
Trigger: Catastrophic collapse in remaining ballot performance—Pratt wins only 1,000-1,300 of final 22,500 votes. Would require counting errors, massive provisional ballot rejections, or statistically impossible partisan skew beyond any historical precedent in LA elections.
Risks.
Ballot counting errors or clerical mistakes in final certification process
Outstanding ballot estimate significantly wrong (more than 30,000+ ballots still remaining)
Unprecedented partisan skew in final ballot drops beyond historical LA patterns
Systematic rejection of Pratt provisional ballots at anomalous rates
Certification delays or legal challenges affecting resolution timeline (though not affecting YES/NO outcome)
Rounding errors in percentage calculation at certification (though 0.5pp buffer provides margin)
Edge Assessment.
MINIMAL EDGE: Market at 99.5% vs my estimate of 99.8% represents only a 0.3 percentage point difference. In practical terms, this is not a significant edge given transaction costs and capital lock-up time until June 2027 resolution date. The market is efficiently priced given the near-certainty of the outcome. Any edge exists only because the mathematical impossibility of the NO scenario hasn't fully translated to 99.9%+ pricing, likely due to platform/liquidity constraints or bettors leaving small probability mass for unknown unknowns (counting errors, certification issues). NOT RECOMMENDED as an actionable betting opportunity unless positions can be taken at zero transaction costs.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Discovery that remaining ballot count is 40,000+ votes instead of ~22,500, materially changing the mathematics of potential percentage shift
Evidence of systematic errors in vote counting or tabulation affecting Pratt's totals specifically
Revelation that Pratt's provisional ballots are being rejected at rates exceeding 30-40%, drastically reducing his final count
LA County elections officials announcing recount or certification delays due to irregularities in Pratt-heavy precincts
Final ballot drops showing Pratt capturing <8% of votes across multiple consecutive releases, suggesting unprecedented collapse in baseline support
Market odds moving to 99.9%+ (eliminating the small edge) or dropping below 99% (suggesting insider information about counting problems)
Sources.
- AP: Pratt eliminated from LA mayoral race as Raman overtakes in late ballot drops
- LA Elections Official Vote Count - June 9, 2026 (97.4% counted)
- Pratt's vote share slowly declining as Democratic mail-in ballots processed
- How Spencer Pratt ran an unconventional LA mayoral campaign
- Pratt's viral influencer operation and AI-generated ads consolidated conservative bloc
- Trump amplifies conspiracy theories about LA vote counting
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