polymarketMarch 31, 20261d agoCredit One Charleston Open: Mayar Sherif vs Yue Yuan
Will Mayar Sherif advance against Yue Yuan in the Credit One Charleston Open match scheduled for March 31, 2026?
Signal
NO TRADE
Probability
0%
Confidence
HIGH
100%
Summary.
This market asks whether Mayar Sherif advanced against Yue Yuan in their Credit One Charleston Open match scheduled for March 31, 2026. The match has already been completed as of today (March 31, 2026): Yue Yuan defeated Mayar Sherif 2-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(5), with Yuan advancing to the next round per official WTA Tour results. The current market probability of 0.0005 (0.05%) for Sherif advancing accurately reflects post-match certainty, leaving only infinitesimal probability for administrative errors or result reversals. My estimated probability (0.0005) equals the market price—there is no edge. The match outcome is definitive: Sherif won the first set convincingly but lost two consecutive tiebreaks, with Yuan completing the comeback victory in a 2-hour, 45-minute battle. Per the resolution criteria, this bet resolves to NO since Yue Yuan advanced, not Mayar Sherif.
Reasoning.
MATCH COMPLETED - RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS
This is a post-match situation where the outcome is definitively known:
Match Result (March 31, 2026): Yue Yuan defeated Mayar Sherif 2-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(5) at the Credit One Charleston Open. Yuan advances to the next round.
Current Market Odds Context: The market odds of 0.0005 for Mayar Sherif reflect a completed event where Yuan has already won. The question asks "Will Mayar Sherif advance?" and the answer is definitively NO - she did not advance.
Resolution Criteria: "Resolves to 'YES' (Mayar Sherif) if Mayar Sherif advances against Yue Yuan. Resolves to 'NO' (Yue Yuan) if Yue Yuan advances."
Since Yuan won the match and advanced, this bet resolves to NO. The probability that Mayar Sherif advanced is effectively 0% (the market's 0.0005 pricing accounts for infinitesimal resolution error possibilities).
Pre-Match Context (for completeness):
- Sherif was the pre-match favorite (1.65-1.79 odds, ~55-60% implied probability)
- She held a 2-1 H2H advantage over Yuan, with both wins on clay
- Sherif was higher ranked (No. 102 vs No. 121)
- Yuan entered as a lucky loser after losing in qualifying
What Actually Happened:
- Sherif dominated the first set 6-2
- Yuan fought back to win two consecutive tiebreaks (7-6, 7-6)
- Match lasted 2h 45m in a highly competitive battle
- Potential fatigue from Sherif's recent 2h 22m Dubrovnik semifinal may have been a factor
Certainty Level: This is a 100% certain outcome based on official WTA Tour results confirmed at 20:00 UTC on March 31, 2026. There is no uncertainty - the match has concluded and Yuan advanced.
Key Factors.
Match has definitively concluded - Yue Yuan won 2-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(5)
Official WTA Tour results confirm Yuan advanced to next round
Market odds of 0.0005 correctly reflect post-match certainty (99.95% for Yuan)
Resolution criteria unambiguously points to NO (Yuan advanced, not Sherif)
Multiple independent sources (WTA official, FlashScore) verify the outcome
Match completed on the scheduled date (March 31, 2026) with no delays or special circumstances
Scenarios.
Actual Outcome (Occurred)
100%Yue Yuan defeated Mayar Sherif 2-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(5) and advanced to the next round. Match completed on March 31, 2026.
Trigger: Official WTA Tour scores confirm Yuan's victory. Match completed and verified by multiple sources including WTA official website and live scoring platforms.
Sherif Advances (Did Not Occur)
0%Mayar Sherif wins the match and advances. This scenario did not materialize - Sherif lost despite winning the first set 6-2.
Trigger: Would have required Sherif to win one of the two tiebreaks in sets 2 or 3. She failed to do so, losing both 7-6(4) and 7-6(5).
Alternative Resolution (Did Not Occur)
0%Match ends in retirement, walkover, or cancellation triggering 50-50 resolution or other special criteria.
Trigger: Would require match not to complete normally. The match completed in full with Yuan winning 2-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(5).
Risks.
Theoretical risk of WTA result correction/reversal (extraordinarily rare, ~0.05% possibility)
Potential administrative error in official scoring (virtually impossible given multiple confirmations)
Misinterpretation of resolution criteria (none present - criteria are clear and outcome matches)
Data timestamp issues showing stale information (all sources current as of March 31, 2026 evening)
Edge Assessment.
NO EDGE - POST-MATCH CERTAINTY
The market odds of 0.0005 for Mayar Sherif are accurately priced for a completed event where she lost. This is not a predictive betting opportunity but rather a settled outcome.
Market Efficiency: The market correctly reflects near-absolute certainty (99.95%) that Sherif did NOT advance, leaving only 0.05% for administrative errors or result reversals.
Estimated Probability vs Market: My estimate (0.0005) equals the market price. There is no edge to exploit.
Pre-Match Perspective (Retrospective): Had this analysis been conducted before the match, the pre-match odds of Sherif at 1.65-1.79 (55-60% implied) appeared reasonably efficient given her H2H advantage, higher ranking, and clay court credentials. The upset victory by Yuan (lucky loser, lower ranked) fell within the expected 40-45% probability range for the underdog. The fatigue factor from Sherif's recent grueling Dubrovnik semifinal and the faster-playing green clay surface were legitimate considerations that the market may have slightly underweighted.
Recommendation: This bet should resolve to NO (Yue Yuan). There is no betting value at current odds - the outcome is certain.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Official WTA Tour announcement of score correction or match result reversal (extraordinarily rare, <0.05% probability)
Discovery that match was actually postponed or canceled and hasn't occurred yet (contradicts multiple verified sources)
Evidence that retrieved match data was from a different tournament or date (all timestamps and sources confirm March 31, 2026 Charleston Open)
Announcement of administrative irregularity requiring match replay (no indication of any such issues)
Sources.
- WTA Tour Official Scores - Credit One Charleston Open 2026
- Sherif vs Yuan Live Score and Match Statistics
- WTA Rankings - March 30, 2026
- Mayar Sherif Career Head-to-Head Records
- Betting Odds - Sherif vs Yuan Charleston 2026
- Charleston Open Predictions: Sherif vs Yuan Analysis
- WTA 125K Dubrovnik 2026 Results
- Charleston Open 2026 Qualifying Results
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