robinhoodApril 4, 202613h agoPurdue at Arizona
Will Arizona win against Purdue in college basketball?
Signal
BUY
Probability
100%
Confidence
HIGH
100%
Summary.
This market is trading at 99% implied probability, but the true probability is 100% (certainty). This is not a prediction scenario—the game already occurred on March 28, 2026, seven days ago. Arizona definitively defeated Purdue 79-64 in the NCAA Elite Eight. The resolution criteria ("Resolves YES if Arizona wins") has been unambiguously met with verified final scores from multiple independent sources. The 1¢ discount from par (100¢) represents pure market inefficiency—likely due to participants unwilling to lock up capital awaiting administrative resolution, or residual confusion about the placeholder resolution date of March 26, 2028 (which appears to be an error since the game already occurred). This presents a guaranteed +1% return opportunity with functionally zero outcome risk.
Reasoning.
CRITICAL TEMPORAL FINDING: This is a settled event, not a prediction.
Today's date: April 4, 2026 Game date: March 28, 2026 (7 days ago) Final Result: Arizona defeated Purdue 79-64
This is not a predictive analysis scenario. The game has already been played and the outcome is definitively known. The resolution criteria states "Resolves YES if Arizona wins the game against Purdue" — this condition has been unambiguously met.
Timeline Analysis:
- March 28, 2026: Game played at SAP Center, San Jose, CA
- Arizona won 79-64 in NCAA Elite Eight matchup
- Market correctly moved from ~66¢ (pre-game probability) to 99¢ after the result
- April 4, 2026 (TODAY): Market still trading at 99¢, awaiting formal resolution
Why 100% probability:
- The game occurred 7 days ago with verified final score
- Multiple sources confirm Arizona 79, Purdue 64
- No ambiguity in resolution criteria — Arizona won
- The 1% discount from 100¢ likely reflects:
- Market friction/liquidity constraints
- Participants waiting for formal administrative resolution
- Tiny residual risk of data error (effectively zero)
Pre-game context (now irrelevant for probability):
- Arizona was -6 favorite (~73.6% implied win probability)
- Trailed 38-31 at halftime
- Dominated second half 48-26 behind Koa Peat's 20 points
- Purdue collapsed shooting 32% FG in second half
The estimated probability is 1.0 (100%) because this is established historical fact, not a future prediction. Any discount from 100¢ represents market inefficiency or administrative delay, not genuine outcome uncertainty.
Key Factors.
Game occurred March 28, 2026 - seven days before today (April 4, 2026)
Verified final score: Arizona 79, Purdue 64
Resolution criteria definitively met - Arizona won the game
Multiple independent sources confirm identical result
Market correctly moved to 99¢ post-game, reflecting near-certainty
The 1¢ discount from 100% represents market friction, not outcome uncertainty
Scenarios.
Confirmed Historical Outcome
100%Arizona defeated Purdue 79-64 on March 28, 2026. This is verified historical fact from multiple sources. The game has already been played and the resolution criteria (Arizona wins) has been definitively met. Market resolves YES.
Trigger: Game already occurred. Final score confirmed: Arizona 79, Purdue 64. Multiple independent sources verify this result from March 28, 2026 Elite Eight game.
Data Recording Error
0%The reported final score is incorrect due to widespread data error across multiple independent sources. This would require systematic failure of sports reporting infrastructure.
Trigger: Would require NCAA, all media outlets, and official scorekeepers to have recorded wrong result. Probability is functionally zero given consistency across sources and 7-day passage of time.
Game Retroactively Voided
0%NCAA retroactively voids the game result due to eligibility violation, rules violation, or other extraordinary circumstances, causing the game to be ruled as 'did not occur as scheduled' per resolution criteria.
Trigger: Would require unprecedented NCAA action 7+ days after Elite Eight game. No indication of any eligibility issues, and such actions are extraordinarily rare at this level. Effectively impossible.
Risks.
Catastrophic data recording error across all sources (probability ~0.0001%)
Retroactive NCAA voiding of game result (unprecedented, probability ~0.0001%)
Misunderstanding of resolution criteria - but criteria clearly states 'if Arizona wins' which occurred
Administrative delay in formal resolution causing temporary price inefficiency
Edge Assessment.
STRONG EDGE: BUY at 99¢
Market Price: 99¢ (99% implied probability) True Probability: 100% (certainty - event already occurred) Expected Value: +1% edge
This represents a pure arbitrage opportunity on a settled event. The game definitively occurred with Arizona winning 79-64. The 1¢ discount from certain resolution represents:
- Market inefficiency: Participants unable/unwilling to tie up capital at 99¢ waiting for administrative resolution
- Liquidity constraints: Small discount compensates for time value and capital lock-up
- Tiny residual perceived risk: Irrational discount for functionally impossible scenarios
Recommendation: Buy all available shares at 99¢. This is not a speculative bet but a guaranteed +1.01% return upon resolution (100¢ payout / 99¢ cost). The only risk is time-to-resolution delay, not outcome uncertainty.
The market has correctly moved from pre-game ~66¢ to post-game 99¢, but the final 1¢ represents extractable value for participants willing to wait for formal administrative resolution. Given the resolution date is March 26, 2028 (appears to be placeholder/error as game already occurred), there may be administrative confusion, but the outcome certainty remains 100%.
What Would Change Our Mind.
Discovery that the reported March 28, 2026 final score (Arizona 79, Purdue 64) was a widespread data recording error across all sports reporting systems (functionally impossible given source consistency and 7-day time passage)
NCAA retroactively voiding the game result due to eligibility violations or other extraordinary circumstances that would trigger the 'game does not occur as scheduled' clause (unprecedented for an Elite Eight game with no current indication of issues)
Revelation that the market refers to a different future game scheduled for March 26, 2028, though all market metadata and research consistently point to the March 28, 2026 game that already occurred
Sources.
Market History.
7-day range: 50¢ – 99¢. Over the past week, the market has trended up 33.5pp (from 66¢).
Get This Via API.
Access real-time prediction market analysis programmatically. Every analysis on this page is available through our REST API.
curl -X POST https://api.rekko.ai/v1/markets/robinhood/TICKER/analyze \ -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY"
Related Analysis.
9 or more upsets in 2026 March Madness Round of 64
The market is pricing 9+ Round of 64 upsets at 46% implied probability, treating 8 upsets as the most likely outcome. However, historical data (2010-2023) shows an average of 9.15 upsets per tournament under this broad definition (any lower seed defeating a higher seed), suggesting the true probability should be approximately 52%. The market appears to be overweighting 2025's extreme anomaly (only 3 upsets) while undervaluing the robust long-term average. Seed-by-seed analysis yields an expected value of 8.3 upsets, just below the threshold but well within normal variance. The broad upset definition critically includes 9-vs-8 matchups (four coin-flip games producing ~2 expected upsets), which creates a structural advantage for YES. While NIL and Transfer Portal talent concentration may be reducing upset rates, regular season data shows stable upset frequencies despite wider point spreads, suggesting tournament variance and single-elimination dynamics still dominate. Major uncertainty exists because Selection Sunday is March 15—just two days away—meaning specific bracket matchups, auto-bid quality, and injury situations remain unknown. The estimated 52% probability represents modest value against the market's 46%, but confidence is tempered (58%) by bracket unknowns and genuine uncertainty about whether 2025 signals a structural shift or statistical outlier.
Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup before the 2031 season
The market implies a 63% probability that a Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup between 2026-2030, but my analysis estimates a more conservative 52% probability—an 11-percentage-point overvaluation. This is essentially a bet on the Edmonton Oilers' championship window during Connor McDavid's prime (ages 29-33), as all other Canadian teams are non-competitive (Toronto/Vancouver rebuilding, Ottawa a longshot at +3300-4000). While McDavid's team-friendly extension through 2027-28 creates a legitimate 3-year window and the Oilers reached back-to-back Finals in 2024-2025, several factors suggest the market is overpricing this outcome: (1) Edmonton LOST both Finals, creating psychological hurdles that losing finalists historically struggle to overcome; (2) Current injuries are concerning—Leon Draisaitl has been out since March 15 with unclear playoff timeline, and McDavid has hip/groin issues; (3) Colorado upgraded to prohibitive favorite (+275-300) by acquiring Quinn Hughes; (4) The 2029-2030 seasons offer minimal value since McDavid's extension ends after 2027-28; (5) The market appears sticky at 63¢ despite recent negative developments, suggesting recency bias and McDavid halo effect rather than properly pricing injury risks and elite competition. My probabilistic model weights 2027-2028 as peak window years (12-15% each) but assigns only 6% to injury-plagued 2026 and 5% to uncertain 2030, yielding 52% cumulative probability.
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
The market is pricing a Mars colony by 2050 at 17.5%, but our analysis estimates just 3% probability—nearly a 6:1 mispricing favoring "No." The critical development is SpaceX's February 2026 strategic pivot to lunar colonization, explicitly delaying Mars missions by 5-7 years. This eliminates the only credible Mars settlement actor until the early 2030s, leaving merely 17-19 effective years for an unprecedented achievement requiring 15-20+ years minimum from today. The resolution criteria demands extreme technical sophistication: 10+ people surviving one full Earth year without resupply, requiring operational ISRU, radiation-shielded agriculture, manufacturing, and nuclear power. NASA's roadmap shows only exploratory missions (late 2030s/2040) with Earth resupply—no government agency has permanent Mars settlement planned. The market appears inefficiently high due to retail Musk enthusiasm not fully incorporating the recent pivot's implications, while sharp money is already favoring "No." The 24-year horizon creates false comfort; detailed milestone sequencing reveals timeline compression is nearly impossible given Mars's 26-month launch windows, 6-9 month transits, and self-sufficiency requirements. Only tail-risk scenarios (AI singularity enabling autonomous construction, or geopolitical space race) preserve ~3% probability.