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GET
/
v1
/
markets
/
{platform}
/
{market_id}
/
analysis
Get latest analysis for a market
curl --request GET \
  --url https://api.example.com/v1/markets/{platform}/{market_id}/analysis
{
  "analyzed_at": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
  "confidence": 0.82,
  "edge": 0.09,
  "expires_at": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
  "key_factors": [
    "PCE inflation at 2.1% — within Fed target range",
    "Three FOMC members signaled openness to cuts in recent speeches",
    "Jobless claims trending upward (225K → 238K over 4 weeks)"
  ],
  "market_id": "KXFED-26MAR19",
  "platform": "kalshi",
  "probability": 0.71,
  "recommendation": "BUY_YES",
  "risk_rating": "low",
  "risks": [
    "Strong March employment report could reverse dovish signals",
    "Tariff escalation could reignite inflation expectations"
  ],
  "source_count": 14,
  "summary": "Fed futures imply 68% probability of a March cut. PCE inflation at 2.1% is within the Fed's comfort zone, and three FOMC members have signaled openness to easing. Our research across 14 sources estimates 71% true probability — a 9-point edge over the current market price of 62c.",
  "title": "Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?"
}

Path Parameters

​
platform
string
required
​
market_id
string
required

Query Parameters

​
expand
string
default:""

Comma-separated expansions

Response

Successful Response

AI-generated research analysis for a prediction market.

Core fields are always present. Detailed breakdowns available via ?expand=scenarios,causal,meta.

​
platform
string
required

kalshi, polymarket, or robinhood

​
market_id
string
required

Platform-specific market identifier

​
title
string
required

Market question

​
probability
number
required

Rekko's estimated true probability

Required range: 0 <= x <= 1
​
confidence
number
required

Confidence in the estimate

Required range: 0 <= x <= 1
​
recommendation
string
required

BUY_YES, BUY_NO, or NO_TRADE

​
summary
string
required

Executive summary of the analysis

​
edge
number
default:0

estimated_prob - market_price (positive = underpriced YES)

​
risk_rating
string
default:medium

low, medium, or high

​
key_factors
string[]

Top probability drivers

​
risks
string[]

Ways the analysis could be wrong

​
source_count
integer
default:0

Number of sources analyzed

​
analyzed_at
string<date-time>

When the analysis was produced

​
expires_at
string<date-time> | null

Signal staleness window

​
freshness
enum<string> | null

Data freshness: fresh (<24h), stale (24-72h), expired (>72h)

Available options:
fresh,
stale,
expired
​
analysis_type
enum<string> | null

Whether this was a full 4-stage or light 2-call analysis

Available options:
full,
light
​
scenarios
AnalysisScenario · object[] | null

Bull/base/bear scenarios (?expand=scenarios)

​
causal
CausalDecomposition · object

Causal factor decomposition (?expand=causal)

Example:
{
  "factors": [
    {
      "claim": "Inflation is within Fed's comfort zone",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "direction": "supports_yes",
      "evidence": [
        "PCE Feb 2026: 2.1%",
        "Core CPI declining 3 months"
      ],
      "posterior": 0.82,
      "prior": 0.6,
      "weight": 0.35
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fed rhetoric is dovish",
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "direction": "supports_yes",
      "evidence": [
        "Waller speech March 12",
        "Bostic: 'open to adjustment'"
      ],
      "posterior": 0.68,
      "prior": 0.5,
      "weight": 0.3
    },
    {
      "claim": "Tariff uncertainty creates headwinds",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "direction": "supports_no",
      "evidence": [
        "New tariffs announced March 5",
        "Trade deficit widening"
      ],
      "posterior": 0.45,
      "prior": 0.4,
      "weight": 0.2
    }
  ],
  "generated_at": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
  "method": "weighted_bayesian",
  "overall_confidence": 0.82,
  "overall_probability": 0.71
}
​
meta
AnalysisMeta · object

Pipeline metadata (?expand=meta)

Example:
{
  "duration_ms": 42300,
  "edge_assessment": "Market at 62c implies 62% probability. Our 71% estimate gives +9c edge — significant at this confidence level.",
  "models_used": [
    "gemini-3.1-pro-preview",
    "claude-sonnet-4-5"
  ],
  "what_would_change_mind": [
    "CPI surprise above 2.5%",
    "Strong employment report (NFP > 250K)",
    "Hawkish Fed minutes release"
  ]
}