Signals

A signal is an actionable trading recommendation with position sizing. It’s the output of POST /v1/signals and combines a full analysis with Kelly-derived sizing.

The Signal object

{
  "platform": "kalshi",
  "market_id": "KXFED-26MAR19",
  "title": "Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?",
  "recommendation": "BUY_YES",
  "target_price": 0.58,
  "edge": 0.12,
  "confidence": 0.73,
  "risk_rating": "medium",
  "size_pct": 0.042,
  "time_horizon": "days",
  "hedge": "Buy NO on KXFED-26MAR26 at 0.82",
  "freshness": "fresh",
  "generated_at": "2026-03-24T14:30:00Z",
  "expires_at": "2026-03-25T14:30:00Z"
}

Recommendation types

Value	Meaning
`BUY_YES`	The event is more likely than the market implies — buy YES contracts
`BUY_NO`	The event is less likely than the market implies — buy NO contracts
`NO_TRADE`	Edge is too small or confidence too low to justify a position

Edge

The edge field is the core of every signal:

edge = estimated_probability - market_price

Positive edge → market underprices the event → BUY_YES
Negative edge → market overprices the event → BUY_NO
Near-zero edge → no actionable opportunity → NO_TRADE

Example: if Rekko estimates 74% probability but the market prices it at 62%, the edge is +0.12 (12 percentage points).

Position sizing (Kelly criterion)

The size_pct field is a Kelly-derived position size as a fraction of your bankroll:

0.042 means “risk 4.2% of your bankroll on this trade”
Accounts for edge magnitude, confidence, and risk rating
Conservative half-Kelly by default — designed to avoid ruin

size_pct is a suggestion, not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.

Risk ratings

Rating	Meaning
`low`	Well-understood event, high source quality, multiple confirming signals
`medium`	Moderate uncertainty, mixed signals, or limited source coverage
`high`	Significant uncertainty, potential for insider information, or thin markets

Time horizon

Value	Meaning
`hours`	Signal is time-sensitive — act quickly or edge may evaporate
`days`	Edge likely persists for 1-7 days
`weeks`	Structural mispricing, slower to correct

Signal expiry

Always check expires_at before acting. After this timestamp, the signal is stale and should not be traded. Market conditions may have changed.

Requesting a signal

curl -X POST https://api.rekko.ai/v1/signals \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"platform": "kalshi", "market_id": "KXFED-26MAR19"}'

Signals include a full analysis under the hood. If you only need the analysis without sizing, use the Analysis Pipeline instead — it’s a cheaper INSIGHT-tier call.

Portfolio-aware signals

For position-adjusted sizing that accounts for correlation with your existing holdings, use POST /v1/signals/portfolio. Pass your current positions and bankroll to get adjusted sizing, concentration warnings, and hedge recommendations.

Portfolio Signal endpoint

Full endpoint documentation with playground.

Getting Started

Core Concepts

Tutorials

Account

The Signal object

Recommendation types

Edge

Position sizing (Kelly criterion)

Risk ratings

Time horizon

Signal expiry

Requesting a signal

Portfolio-aware signals

Portfolio Signal endpoint

​The Signal object

​Recommendation types

​Edge

​Position sizing (Kelly criterion)

​Risk ratings

​Time horizon

​Signal expiry

​Requesting a signal

​Portfolio-aware signals

Portfolio Signal endpoint

The Signal object

Recommendation types

Edge

Position sizing (Kelly criterion)

Risk ratings

Time horizon

Signal expiry

Requesting a signal

Portfolio-aware signals