Skip to main content

Documentation Index

Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://rekko.ai/docs/llms.txt

Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

A signal is an actionable trading recommendation with position sizing. It’s the output of POST /v1/signals and combines a full analysis with Kelly-derived sizing.

​
The Signal object

{
  "platform": "kalshi",
  "market_id": "KXFED-26MAR19",
  "title": "Will the Fed cut rates at the March 2026 meeting?",
  "recommendation": "BUY_YES",
  "target_price": 0.58,
  "edge": 0.12,
  "confidence": 0.73,
  "risk_rating": "medium",
  "size_pct": 0.042,
  "time_horizon": "days",
  "hedge": "Buy NO on KXFED-26MAR26 at 0.82",
  "freshness": "fresh",
  "generated_at": "2026-03-24T14:30:00Z",
  "expires_at": "2026-03-25T14:30:00Z"
}

​
Recommendation types

ValueMeaning
BUY_YESThe event is more likely than the market implies — buy YES contracts
BUY_NOThe event is less likely than the market implies — buy NO contracts
NO_TRADEEdge is too small or confidence too low to justify a position

​
Edge

The edge field is the core of every signal: 
edge = estimated_probability - market_price
  • Positive edge → market underprices the event → BUY_YES
  • Negative edge → market overprices the event → BUY_NO
  • Near-zero edge → no actionable opportunity → NO_TRADE
Example: if Rekko estimates 74% probability but the market prices it at 62%, the edge is +0.12 (12 percentage points).

​
Position sizing (Kelly criterion)

The size_pct field is a Kelly-derived position size as a fraction of your bankroll:
  • 0.042 means “risk 4.2% of your bankroll on this trade”
  • Accounts for edge magnitude, confidence, and risk rating
  • Conservative half-Kelly by default — designed to avoid ruin
size_pct is a suggestion, not financial advice. Always apply your own risk management.

​
Risk ratings

RatingMeaning
lowWell-understood event, high source quality, multiple confirming signals
mediumModerate uncertainty, mixed signals, or limited source coverage
highSignificant uncertainty, potential for insider information, or thin markets

​
Time horizon

ValueMeaning
hoursSignal is time-sensitive — act quickly or edge may evaporate
daysEdge likely persists for 1-7 days
weeksStructural mispricing, slower to correct

​
Signal expiry

Always check expires_at before acting. After this timestamp, the signal is stale and should not be traded. Market conditions may have changed.

​
Requesting a signal

curl -X POST https://api.rekko.ai/v1/signals \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"platform": "kalshi", "market_id": "KXFED-26MAR19"}'
Signals include a full analysis under the hood. If you only need the analysis without sizing, use the Analysis Pipeline instead — it’s a cheaper INSIGHT-tier call.

​
Portfolio-aware signals

For position-adjusted sizing that accounts for correlation with your existing holdings, use POST /v1/signals/portfolio. Pass your current positions and bankroll to get adjusted sizing, concentration warnings, and hedge recommendations.

Portfolio Signal endpoint

Full endpoint documentation with playground.