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What this page covers

  • What Manifold Markets is and how it differs from real-money platforms
  • Manifold Markets API overview and key endpoints
  • When to use Manifold vs real-money platforms
  • How to access real-money prediction market data and analysis

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What is Manifold Markets?

Manifold Markets is an open-source prediction market platform that uses play money (called “mana”). Anyone can create a market on any topic, making it popular for community forecasting, research, and casual predictions.
FeatureDetails
CurrencyPlay money (mana) — not real money
Market creationAnyone can create a market
CategoriesUnlimited — user-generated
Source codeOpen source (GitHub)
APIFull REST API, no auth required for reads
CommunityActive forecasting community, academic research

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Key difference: play money vs real money

Manifold uses play money, which means prices may not reflect real market consensus the way real-money platforms do. Real money creates stronger incentives for accurate pricing — traders with genuine financial exposure research more thoroughly and correct mispricings faster. For serious analysis, trading signals, or building trading bots, real-money platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket) provide more reliable price signals.

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Manifold Markets API

Manifold has a clean REST API. No authentication is needed for read operations.

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Base URL

https://api.manifold.markets/v0

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List markets

import httpx

resp = httpx.get("https://api.manifold.markets/v0/markets", params={"limit": 10})
markets = resp.json()
for m in markets:
    print(f"{m['question'][:60]:60} | Prob: {m.get('probability', 'N/A')}")

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Get a single market

resp = httpx.get(f"https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/{market_id}")
market = resp.json()

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Search markets

resp = httpx.get("https://api.manifold.markets/v0/search-markets", params={"term": "Fed rate"})
results = resp.json()

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Market data format

FieldTypeDescription
idstringUnique identifier
questionstringThe market question
probabilitynumberCurrent probability (0-1)
totalLiquiditynumberAvailable liquidity (mana)
volumenumberTotal volume traded (mana)
creatorNamestringWho created the market
closeTimenumberWhen trading closes (Unix ms)
resolutionstringYES, NO, MKT, or null if unresolved
mechanismstringcpmm-1 (constant product market maker)

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Place a trade (requires auth)

Trading requires an API key from your Manifold account: 
resp = httpx.post(
    f"https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/{market_id}/bet",
    headers={"Authorization": f"Key {MANIFOLD_API_KEY}"},
    json={"amount": 100, "outcome": "YES"},
)

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Python SDK

The community maintains a Python client: 
pip install manifoldpy

from manifoldpy import api

markets = api.get_markets(limit=10)

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When to use Manifold vs real-money platforms

Use caseManifoldReal-money (Kalshi/Polymarket)
Community forecastingYes
Custom market creationYes
Academic research on crowd wisdomYes
Casual predictions with friendsYes
Financial trading and profitYes
Building automated trading botsYes
AI-powered analysis and signalsYes
Cross-platform arbitrageYes
Portfolio management with real P&LYes
Manifold is excellent for forecasting research and community engagement. For financial applications, real-money platforms provide stronger price signals and actual trading infrastructure.

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Real-money prediction market APIs

If you need real-money market data, AI analysis, or trading signals, the Rekko API provides unified access to Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood: 
import httpx

client = httpx.Client(
    base_url="https://api.rekko.ai/v1",
    headers={"Authorization": "Bearer YOUR_API_KEY"},
)

# Real-money markets across all platforms
markets = client.get("/markets", params={"limit": 5}).json()
for m in markets:
    print(f"{m['platform']:12} | {m['title'][:50]} | YES: {m['yes_price']:.2f} | Vol: ${m['volume_24h']:,.0f}")
Beyond market data, Rekko provides AI-powered analysis, probability estimates, trading signals with Kelly sizing, cross-platform arbitrage detection, and portfolio tracking — features that go well beyond what any single platform API offers.

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What’s next

API comparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Robinhood — detailed comparison.

Build a trading bot

Step-by-step Python trading bot tutorial.

Quickstart

Get a free API key and start querying real-money markets.